UC Irvine

This dissertation proposes a methodology applicable worldwide to assess key health, climate and electricity system impacts of high penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE), such as wind and solar energy, in the production of electricity. Three primary questions are addressed: (1) what are the health benefits and control costs of tightening emission standards for particulate matter (PM); (2) what are the health, climate and electricity grid impacts of high penetrations of VRE; and (3) is a 100% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) electricity grid technically feasible in Northeast (NE) Brazil, and what are the associated health and climate benefits? The methodology I developed to answer these questions combines highly resolved spatial and temporal electricity grid simulation (via Plexos), atmospheric dispersion of power plant emissions (via CALPUFF), and human health impacts estimation (via BenMAP). The methodology is validated extensively over detailed case studies in NE Brazil, a region that has exceptionally high VRE and hydroelectric potential. Results for Question (1) indicate that when tightening emission standards, the health benefits outweigh the control costs by at least 50 times, even in a relatively clean region. Results for Question (2) show that health and climate benefits exceed US$267 million/yr and US$1.2 billion/yr respectively if NE Brazil transitions to a 45% VRE instead of a 30% VRE penetration in 2030. For Question (3), I find that a 100% RPS is not feasible using only wind, solar PV and hydroelectric resources in NE Brazil unless ~13% of demand can be flexibly imported and ~23% of generation can be flexibly exported; otherwise additional types of generation, storage and load balancing technology would need to be deployed. For this case, the health and climate benefits are at least US$433 million/yr and US$2.4 billion/yr respectively if NE Brazil transitions to a 100% RPS instead of a 30% VRE penetration in 2030.