Earth & Environmental Sciences

Understanding connectivity between the soil and deeper bedrock groundwater is needed to accurately predict a watershed's response to perturbation, such as drought. Yet, the bedrock groundwater dynamics in mountainous environments are typically under-constrained and excluded from watershed hydrologic models. Here, we investigate the role of groundwater characterized with decadal and longer water ages on the hydrologic and mass-transport processes within a steep snow-dominated mountain hillslope in the Central Rocky Mountains (USA). We quantify subsurface and surface water mass-balance, groundwater flowpaths, and age distributions using the ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models, which are compared to hydrometric and environmental tracer observations. An ensemble of models with varied soil and hydrogeologic parameters reproduces observed groundwater levels and century-scale mean ages inferred from environmental tracers. The numerical models suggest soil water near the toe of the hillslope contains considerable (>60 % of the mass-flux) contributions from bedrock flowpaths characterized with water ages >10 years. Flowpath connectivity between the deeper bedrock and soil systems is present throughout the year, highlighting the potentially critical role of groundwater with old ages on processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow generation. The coupled numerical model and groundwater age observations show the bedrock groundwater system influences the hillslope hydrodynamics and should be considered in mountain watershed conceptual and numerical models.

The presence of toxic metals in tobacco smoke is well documented. However, few studies have quantified trace metals in secondhand smoke (SHS) and thirdhand smoke (THS). Their presence in indoor air can contribute to nonsmokers’ exposures and health effects. In this study, emission and deposition rates of toxic trace metals were determined, and their airborne concentration in typical indoor scenarios was predicted. PM2.5 was collected on Teflon-coated filters at various times following a smoking event in a room-sized chamber over a 43 h period. The concentration of 28 trace metals was determined by extraction and analysis using inductively coupled plasma-triple quadrupole-mass spectrometry (ICP-QQQ-MS). Emission and indoor deposition rates of cadmium, arsenic, chromium, manganese, beryllium and selenium were determined, and used to predict concentrations expected in a smokers’ home and a smoking bar. In most of the considered scenarios, average indoor concentrations of Cd, As, and Cr exceeded their corresponding cancer risk thresholds and, in some cases, also noncancer reference exposure levels, more than 3 h after smoking ended. The fraction of cadmium that remained airborne was significantly higher than those of other metal traces and that of PM2.5, suggesting an association of Cd traces with small particles.

Solifluction processes in the Arctic are highly complex, introducing uncertainties in estimating current and future soil carbon storage and fluxes, and assessment of hillslope and infrastructure stability. This study aims to enhance our understanding of triggers and drivers of soil movement of permafrost-affected hillslopes in the Arctic. To achieve this, we established an extensive soil deformation and temperature sensor network, covering 48 locations across multiple hillslopes within a 1 km2 watershed on the Seward Peninsula, AK. We report depth-resolved measurements down to 1.8 m depth for May to September 2022, a period conducive to soil movement due to deepening thaw layers and frequent rain events. Over this period, surface movements of up to 334 mm were recorded. In general, these movements occur close to the thawing front, and are initiated as thawing reaches depths of 0.4-0.75 m. The largest movements were observed at the top of the south-east facing slope, where soil temperatures are cold (mean annual soil temperatures averaging −1.13 °C) and slopes are steeper than 15°. Our analysis highlights three primary factors influencing movements: slope angle, soil thermal conditions, and thaw depth. The latter two significantly impact the generation of pore water pressures at the thaw-freeze interface. Specifically, soil thermal conditions govern the liquid water content, while thaw depth influences both the height of the water column and, consequently, the pressure at the thawing front. These factors affect soil properties, such as cohesion and internal friction angle, which are crucial determinants of slope stability. This underscores the significance of a precise understanding of subsurface thermal conditions, including spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature and thaw depth, when assessing and predicting slope instabilities. Based on our observations, we developed a factor of safety proxy that consistently falls below the triggering threshold for all probes exhibiting displacements exceeding 50 mm. This study offers novel insights into patterns and triggers of hillslope movements in the Arctic and provides a venue to evaluate their impact on soil redistribution.

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and downstream of the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone were high, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. We interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

Headwater catchments play a vital role in regional water supply and ecohydrology, and a quantitative understanding of the hydrological partitioning in these catchments is critically needed, particularly under a changing climate. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of subsurface critical zone (CZ) structure in modulating the partitioning of precipitation in mountainous catchments; however, few existing studies have explicitly taken into account the 3D subsurface CZ structure. In this study, we designed realistic synthetic catchment models based on seismic velocity-estimated 3D subsurface CZ structures. Integrated hydrologic modeling is then used to study the effects of the shape of the weathered bedrock and the associated storage capacity on various hydrologic fluxes and storages in mountainous headwater catchments. Numerical results show that the weathered bedrock affects not only the magnitude but also the peak time of both streamflow and subsurface dynamic storage.

The safety assessments of the geological storage of spent nuclear fuel require understanding the underground radionuclide mobility in case of a leakage from multi-barrier canisters. Uranium, the most common radionuclide in non-reprocessed spent nuclear fuels, is immobile in reduced form (U(IV) and highly mobile in an oxidized state (U(VI)). The latter form is considered one of the most dangerous environmental threats in the safety assessments of spent nuclear fuel repositories. The sorption of uranium to mineral surfaces surrounding the repository limits their mobility. We quantify uranium sorption using surface complexation models (SCMs). Unfortunately, numerical SCM solvers often encounter convergence problems due to the complex nature of convoluted equations and correlations between model parameters. This study explored two machine learning surrogates for the 2-pK Triple Layer Model of uranium retention by oxide surfaces if released as U(IV) in the oxidizing conditions: random forest regressor and deep neural networks. Our surrogate models, particularly DNN, accurately reproduce SCM model predictions at a fraction of the computational cost without any convergence issues. The safety assessment of spent fuel repositories, specifically the migration of leaked radioactive waste, will benefit from having ultrafast AI/ML surrogates for the computationally expensive sorption models that can be easily incorporated into larger-scale contaminant migration models. One such model is presented here.

Correction to: Transport in Porous Media (2024) 151:55–84https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-023-02033-0. There are three numbers in Table 2 of the original paper that were incorrect. Specfically, the value of the density of hydrogen (H2) for the DB model and the values of density and viscosity of H2 for the TOUGH2 model listed in Table 2 of the original paper were incorrect. (Table presented.) Properties of the H2-water upconing system for comparison against the DB model. Property DB model Used for TOUGH2 Gas cap thickness, total reservoir thickness, and radial extent (outer radius) of the reservoir Infinite, infinite, infinite 50 m, 100 m (with open boundary at bottom), 100 m (open boundary condition) Porosity (ϕ) 0.10 0.10 Permeability (kH) 1.0 × 10−12 m2 1.0 × 10−12 m2 Permeability (kV) 1.0 × 10−12 m2 1.0 × 10−12 m2 Relative permeability (krel) Not applicable Linear with Slr = 0.99 Distance from well to H2-water interface (d) 10 m 10 m Extraction rate of rate of H2 (Qm) − 5.5 kg s−1 − 5.5 kg s−1 Density of water 996 kg m−3 996 kg m−3 Density of H2 7.32 kg m−3 7.87 kg m−3 Viscosity of water 6.54 × 10−4 Pa s 5.11 × 10−4 Pa s Viscosity of H2 9.31 × 10−6 Pa s 9.53 × 10−6 Pa s A corrected Table 2 is shown below. The erroneous values in Table 2 were not used in any of the modeling and simulation. Accurate values for density and viscosity in the modeling and simulation come from CoolProp for the DB model and from EOS7CH for the TOUGH2 simulations.

Abstract: Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rocks have been a topic of intense scientific research for more than 30 years. The present paper takes a look into the past and highlights some scientific advances which are of an unusual “out-of-the-box” nature, and then looks forward and discusses possible directions of future research in this interesting field of study. Concerning future research directions, we see a trend from a focus on coupled THM processes in single fractures or a few interacting fractures, to the study of coupled THM behavior in complex fracture network systems where the fractures act collectively giving rise to local stress concentration points and points of large pressure gradients. Three examples of future research directions are presented. First is an effort towards identifying characterizing parameters of a fracture network that play a direct controlling role in major coupled THM phenomena (such as induced seismicity and flow channeling), rather than parameters of stochastic distributions of fractures in the network. The second example of research direction is accounting for the heterogeneity and hierarchy of fractures in a fault or fracture zone which has been associated with major THM events in a number of geo-energy projects. The third example is at the opposite end of the first; here it is recognized that in some cases, the coupled THM processes in fractured rocks may be controlled dominantly by only a few key bridges. Identification, characterization, and evaluation of these key bridges should be one of the important research directions in the coming days.

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is ramping up worldwide as a viable component of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects aimed at reducing greenhouse pollution to limit climate change. GCS may be a growth opportunity for the application of geophysics in reservoir characterization and monitoring. Federal and state government financial incentives are the economic motivators of the CCUS business in the United States, and recent increases in these incentives have triggered a large number of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Class VI permit applications to inject CO2 for GCS. The applications indicate that almost all such projects propose using geophysical technology for monitoring. We assessed the GCS geophysical market in the United States based on an intensive analysis of recently filed Class VI permit applications. The analysis shows that reprocessing of existing seismic data will be the primary geophysical activity for reservoir characterization prior to CO2 injection. For monitoring, verification, and recording of CO2 injection, time-lapse vertical seismic profiling and 3D seismic imaging will be the dominant technologies followed by 2D time-lapse seismic imaging and some nonseismic methods. Passive seismic monitoring is planned for the majority of CCUS projects to reduce the risk of induced seismicity. If assumptions related to the United States meeting its current climate goals by 2050 are met, then geophysical activity will increase over the next 30 years. An estimate of the seismic crew count needed to support the projects suggests that the scale of GCS-related seismic acquisition by 2050 may reach the current level of onshore oil and gas geophysics crews in the United States. While the economic incentives of a regulation-driven market will press for the minimization of geophysical sensing in GCS, there is also the potential for growth in geophysical activity with the development of advanced processing and analysis tools, multiphysics data interpretation, and cost-effective continuous monitoring.

In order to understand the details of thermal and hydrologic processes attending CO2 injection into a deep aquifer in the context of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), we have carried out coupled well-reservoir simulations of CO2 injection using the simulator T2WELL-ECO2M. We focus on the injection of cold, dry CO2 into a warm aquifer and analyze in detail the thermal and hydraulic processes of the coupled well-reservoir system. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of T2WELL in accurately modeling non-isothermal, multiphase flow, phase changes, and identifying dry-out regions in porous media. We simulated heat exchange with the ambient environment, friction effects, convection, exothermic dissolution in brine, and cooling due to both Joule-Thomson effect and water vaporization. The temperature profile within the wellbore deviated from the geothermal profile, impacting CO2 properties at the bottomhole. The simulation revealed the presence of three fronts in the formation: the CO2 saturation, thermal, and evaporation fronts. The thermal and evaporation fronts were located farther behind the saturation front, indicating limited dry-out and thermal effects near the wellbore. This simulation capability and insights gained in this study form a foundation for ongoing work such as sensitivity analyses, injection optimization, performance assessment, and operational decision support.