Partly in response to credibility concerns raised by forecast bias, the FTA has made changes to the New Starts program over the years both to increase forecast accuracy and reduce reliance on forecasts in selecting projects for funding. Such changes include a requirement for ex post analyses of cost and ridership for completed projects and the introduction of several new criteria in addition to cost and ridership to evaluate proposed projects — such as anticipated environmental benefit and transit- supportive land use policies. Unfortunately, there has been no research to date that has examined how these changes in Federal policy have influenced forecast accuracy for rapid transit projects that receive New Starts funding.
