UC San Diego

Background: Empirical evidence from European countries has shown that economic conditions in early life were associated with risk of death.

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the effects of economic condition in early life on the risk of adult mortality in U.S contexts.

Methods: To capture exogenous variation of economic conditions early in life, we use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cyclical deviation of birth year. Using linked General Social Survey and National Death Index data (1979-2008), we employ parametric frailty survival models to examine the effects of economic conditions in early life on all-cause and cause-specific risk of mortality.

Results: We find that exposure to recession in the first year of life increased risk of all-cause mortality at population level. Such adverse effects were only found for mortality from unspecified cancers and heart valve disorders. We also find a significant interaction between economic conditions in the first year and paternal education on the effect of the risk of adult mortality—higher paternal education was protective against risk of mortality when the respondent’s first year was in good economic conditions; however, higher paternal education was a risk toward mortality when the respondent’s first year was in poor economic conditions. We discuss how aspiration theory may explain this seemingly empirical irregularity.

Conclusion: Our study concludes that an individual’s risk of dying is affected by macroeconomic conditions in early life, and paternal education moderates this relationship.