UC Berkeley

Under what conditions do political parties use pre-electoral violence as a campaign strategy in Bangladesh? Pre-electoral violence has been a consistently regular precursor to each and every election in Bangladesh, with the most recent national election on January 5, 2014, being one of the bloodiest and most undemocratic. However, not all constituencies in Bangladesh experience the same level of pre-electoral violence. There are some like Dhaka - 8 that saw approximately 150 episodes of violence prior to the 2014 elections, while others like Gopalgonj - 3 saw none. What explains this variation? In this paper, I argue and demonstrate using a negative binomial regression model as well as case study and interview data that the ways in which individuals interface with the state (either through the bureaucracy on their own or through the use of local leaders) and the level of information parties have on voter preferences impact the level of pre-electoral violence in constituencies across Bangladesh.