Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

The most critical long-term trend affecting the East Asian security environment is the emergence of a more politically and militarily assertive China, driven by its economic growth and its sense of entitlement as a leading power in the region. To a certain extent, this emergence will conflict with a similarly rising India, but mostly it will clash with U.S. security interests in maintaining the (U.S.–predominant) status quo in the region. The region may stay reasonably stable for the next decade, but if trends continue, instability could grow in the western Pacific, particularly the South China Sea.