UC Berkeley

This dissertation addresses the problem of estimating and projecting orphanhood prevalence and kinship resources available to orphans in Zimbabwe, one of the countries hit the hardest by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The extended family has been recognized as a major safety net against the negative consequences of the generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about the effect of the epidemic on the quantity of kinship resources available to children. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a quantitative assessment of the material basis of traditional kin relations in Zimbabwe.

An approach based on formal demographic methods is used to evaluate the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on maternal orphanhood, for the period 1980-2050. The model, which is informed by United Nations estimates and projections of demographic rates, provides insights on the process of orphans' generation. One of the main results is that the number of maternal orphans in the age group 0-17 years is expected not to decline until around 2030. This is related to the fact that the transition to orphanhood is a cumulative process with age, and that there is a lag between the peak in adult HIV prevalence and the one in AIDS-related orphanhood prevalence.

A microsimulation model, whose core relies on SOCSIM, is used to estimate quantities for which analytical expressions are unmanageable, such as kinship resources for double orphans. The model is calibrated to the Zimbabwean setting, using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and estimates and projections from the United Nations. The results of the simulation show a transition, between 1990 and 2010, from fairly high to fairly low levels of kinship resources for young children in Zimbabwe. The proportion of double orphans without any living grandparents will increase until about 2030 and then will decrease. This trend will shift the responsibility for double orphans to uncles and aunts. On average, the number of uncles and aunts per double orphan has been decreasing from 1980 to 2010, but it is expected to increase progressively during the next decades.

Methodologically, the dissertation deals with the problem of calibration and statistical inference for stochastic demographic microsimulations. Traditional forms of parameter tuning are formalized within a Bayesian framework. The approach does not provide a definite answer to the problem of statistical inference for the outputs of demographic microsimulations. However, it provides a first contribution towards the development of a more comprehensive methodology to assess uncertainty in the field of stochastic kinship forecasting.

The dissertation provides a quantitative basis for the study of the stress imposed by the HIV/AIDS epidemic on traditional forms of kin relations. This research raises questions on the social consequences of changes in kinship structure, and on the strategies needed to address the lack of care in the context of a generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic.