UC Davis

Automobile manufacturers are pushing the rapid development of automated vehicles (AVs) despite a limited understanding of consumer demand and potential impacts on travel behavior. An effective policy response depends on an improved understanding of who will be interested in (early) adoption of AVs, what the users’ preferred business models (private vs. shared) will be, and how the eventual adoption of shared automated vehicle (SAV) services will likely impact personal/household vehicle ownership levels. This study addresses these topics through a market segmentation analysis using latent-class modeling of data from a custom-designed transportation survey of California residents. I use sociodemographics, general attitudes, and current AV familiarity to define the segments. The analysis uncovered three latent classes: (1) AV Early Adopters who are enthusiastic about the fully automated AV scenarios presented (private ownership and shared services) and are ready to adopt shared AVs instead of owning other personal/household vehicles, (2) AV Curious who are less enthusiastic about AVs than the prior class and more likely to maintain their current vehicle ownership in the future even when using shared AV services, and (3) AV Hesitant who are resistant to using either private or shared AVs and would not be interested in reducing their vehicle ownership levels if they had access to SAV services. The characteristics of the three classes provide a basis for actionable recommendations for both private companies and transportation policy makers.