UC Berkeley

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of thyroidectomy complications is necessary to inform treatment decisions. Ensemble machine learning provides one approach to improve prediction. METHODS: We applied the Super Learner (SL) algorithm to the 2016-2018 thyroidectomy-specific NSQIP database to predict complications following thyroidectomy. Cross-validation was used to assess model discrimination and precision. RESULTS: For the 17,987 patients undergoing thyroidectomy, rates of recurrent laryngeal nerve injury, post-operative hypocalcemia prior to discharge or within 30 days, and neck hematoma were 6.1%, 6.4%, 9.0%, and 1.8%, respectively. SL improved prediction of thyroidectomy-specific outcomes when compared with benchmark logistic regression approaches. For postoperative hypocalcemia prior to discharge, SL improved the cross-validated AUROC to 0.72 (95%CI 0.70-0.74) compared to 0.70 (95%CI 0.68-0.72; p < 0.001) when using a manually curated logistic regression algorithm. CONCLUSION: Ensemble machine learning modestly improves prediction for thyroidectomy-specific outcomes. SL holds promise to provide more accurate patient-level risk prediction to inform treatment decisions.