Recent itsdavis_workingpapers items

Designing a Self-Financing Incentive Program for Zero-Emission Trucks in California: A Market-Based, Feebate-Inspired Policy Framework

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Designing a Self-Financing Incentive Program for Zero-Emission Trucks in California: A Market-Based, Feebate-Inspired Policy Framework

Bicycles and micromobility for disaster response and recovery

Wed, 31 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Bicycles and other forms of micromobility have been anecdotally used in past disasters to help save lives and improve community recovery. However, research and practice are scarce on this resilient transportation strategy, which limits its usefulness and possible benefits. To fill this gap, our paper investigates the potential role bicycles and micromobility in facilitating (or limiting) disaster response and recovery. Given the lack of exploration on the topic, we convened an online workshop where we conducted brainstorming and focus group discussions with disaster experts from various government agencies, not-for-profit organizations, academia, and policy groups. We present a synthesis of that discussion, along with a review of the existing literature. We conclude there is strong potential for bicycles and micromobility for different disaster phases, hazard types, and groups of people. However, multiple barriers exist related to implementation and safety, suggesting a need for...

California's Advanced Clean Cars II: Issues and Implications

Tue, 31 May 2022 00:00:00 +0000

California's Advanced Clean Cars II: Issues and Implications

Longitudinal Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on Mobility: An Early Snapshot of the Emerging Changes in Travel Behavior

Thu, 25 Feb 2021 00:00:00 +0000

Longitudinal Analysis of COVID-19 Impacts on Mobility: An Early Snapshot of the Emerging Changes in Travel Behavior

Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle GHG Impacts in California: Integrating Consumer-Informed Recharge Profiles with an Electricity-Dispatch Model

Mon, 5 Oct 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) is challenging because PHEVs are powered by gasoline and grid electricity—in a variety of proportions across individual consumers. Previous GHG estimates emissions postulate consumer behavior and simplify interactions with the electricity grid. We construct PHEV emissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving and recharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, and total GHG emissions. From a survey of 877 California new vehicle buyers we elicit driving patterns, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differ substantially from those used in previous analyses—including substantial interest in PHEVs with no true all-electric driving. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to one million PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulate GHG emissions...

Estimating Criteria Pollutant Emissions Using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) Model v1.0

Mon, 3 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80% GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries....

Understanding the Impact of Reoccurring and Non-Financial Incentives on Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption – A Review

Mon, 3 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The market introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is being partially driven by policy interventions. One type of intervention is reoccurring and non-financial incentives, these differ from financial purchase incentives which are a one-time financial incentive associated with the purchase of a PEV. Reoccurring and non-financial incentives include special lane access for PEVs (e.g. HOV/carpool lanes, bus lanes), parking incentives, charging infrastructure development, road toll fee waivers, and licensing incentives. They also include disincentives such as gasoline tax or annual vehicle taxes. The impact of these incentives differs between regions partially due to differences in traffic conditions, travel patterns, consumer preferences, and other local variations. Due to these differences, it is challenging to rank the importance of these incentives, however existing research shows that they all can have a positive impact on PEV adoption. Policymakers wishing to promote...

Dynamic Ridesharing: Exploration of Potential for Reduction in Vehicle Miles Traveled

Mon, 3 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000

It is widely recognized that new vehicle and fuel technologies are necessary but not sufficient to meet deep greenhouse gas reduction goals in the United States. Demand management strategies, such as land use, transit, and auto pricing policies, are also needed. These measures, however, have historically faced political challenges and have been difficult to implement. Emerging ridesharing systems now suggest the possibility of a new demand management strategy that may be more politically palatable and reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). To date, however, little research has evaluated their potential travel effects, especially on a regional scale. This study used the San Francisco, California, Bay Area activity-based travel demand model to simulate business-as-usual, transit-oriented development, and auto pricing scenarios with and without high, medium, and low ridesharing participation levels. The analysis suggests that relatively large VMT reductions are possible...

Motivations and Barriers Associated with the Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles in Beijing: A Multinomial Logit Model Approach

Mon, 27 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

The recent surge of the Chinese Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PEV) market makes China the world’s largest PEV stock. A series of supportive policies in China contributed greatly to the rapid PEV adoption by limiting regular vehicles and reducing the price of PEVs. However, the role these policies play in changing references and encouraging consumers to purchase PEVs rather than conventional vehicles is not fully known. Other factors, rather than incentives, that could help maintain the current adoption trend are still unclear. The latter is especially critical in understanding how the market reacts to a gradually decreasing level of incentives to achieve the next goal of 5 million PEVs on the road by 2020 in China. Therefore, in this study the authors explored these research questions through a cross-sectional study of the current PEV market on consumers in Beijing by employing a multinomial logit model. Beijing has high levels of PEV adoptions in addition to a specific policy...

Barcodes, virtual money, and Golden Wheels: The influence of Davis, CA schools' bicycling encouragement programs

Mon, 27 Jan 2020 00:00:00 +0000

Efforts to encourage bicycling to school can achieve numerous societal benefits, including improved childhood health, reduced traffic congestion, and even long-term effects such as increased bicycling skill and attitudes. Most of the literature on children bicycling to school focuses on the influence of infrastructure interventions, yet relatively few studies have robustly evaluated the influence of encouragement efforts. This study seeks to examine the effects of three encouragement efforts undertaken at primary and secondary schools in Davis, California: the Active4.me scanning program, the Monkey Money incentive system, and the national Bike-to-School Day celebration. I use a binomial regression to statistically analyze bicycle rack count data and Safe Routes to School classroom tallies collected by city employees and local volunteers. After accounting for the schools’ physical environment and characteristics, as well as the influence of weather and the natural environment,...

Evaluation of UC Davis Long-Range Transportation, Land-Use, And Housing Plans: Examining the Potential for Innovative Mobility Pilot Projects

Wed, 16 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

At present, the City of Davis, surrounding communities, and the UC Davis campus are struggling with many of the same transportation problems that plague larger urban centers including increasing traffic, limited parking, and challenges to effective operation of the public transit system. The campus is expecting to grow by 6,000 students in the next ten years (plus approximately 3,000 faculty and staff) and is developing a Long-Range Development Plan (LRDP) that will serve to guide this growth. This plan will include housing, traffic control, parking, alternative transportation modes, and interactions with the broader community. The development of the LRDP provides a unique opportunity for the Institute of Transportation Studies-Davis (ITS-Davis), the University of California (UC)-wide partners for Advanced Transit and Highways (PATH) program, and Caltrans to provide input and advice on mobility options that will help the campus accommodate the expected growth while minimizing...

New Car Dealers and Retail Innovation in California’s Plug-In Electric Vehicle Market

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Innovative new products like plug-in electric vehicles may need new approaches to market and sell them. We 3 conducted 43 interviews with automakers and dealers selling plug-in vehicles in California’s major metro markets 4 and analyzed data on customer satisfaction with new car dealers and Tesla retail stores. Initial findings revealed: 5 • Plug-in vehicle buyers rated the dealer purchase experience much lower than conventional vehicle buyers 6 while Tesla earned industry-high scores; 7 • Plug-in buyers expect more from dealers than conventional buyers, including product knowledge and support 8 that extends beyond traditional offerings; 9 • Profits from plug-in vehicles may not be compelling enough to convince more dealers to take on the greater 10 demands of selling these alternatives 11 • New retail approaches undertaken by dealer “pioneers”, including new methods for building and scaling 12 dealer competence, could improve the PEV buying experience; and 13 • More "retail friendly"...

Cognitive Mechanisms of Behavior Change in the Case of In-Vehicle Fuel Economy Feedback

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This paper presents results from a year-long study on driver feedback, driver attitudes, and the adoption of ecodriving behaviors. Narrowly defined, ecodriving represents only the set of behaviors that a driver can use to minimize the energy use of a trip after the trip has begun. The general ecodriving behaviors are moderating acceleration, top speed, and braking. Ecodriving has long been recognized as a potential source of reductions in transportation energy use, with reduction estimates ranging widely from less than 5% to over 20% depending on context. In-vehicle feedback is one way to motivate ecodriving by connecting drivers with salient information suited to their personal goals. Although many studies have tested unique feedback designs, little research has been conducted into the cognitive precursors to driver behavior change that may underlie the adoption or rejection of ecodriving practices, and therefore underlie the effectiveness of any feedback design. This study examines...

The Carbon Intensity of NGV C8 Trucks

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Natural gas vehicles have been favored by U.S. air quality agencies for the cleaner burning properties of natural gas. However, the climate consequences of a switch to natural gas vehicles for long distance, heavy-duty applications has been less clear. The radioactive forcings of short-lived methane leakage must be weighed against any long term benefits of emitting less CO2. The scientific literature reports a variety of results and conclusions, thus policy makers often find it hard to make science-based, sound decision-making. But there is inherent natural variability in the system and virtually any result can be justified based on a given choice of input values. Some scholars deal with this variability with probabilistic distributions of inputs to produce probabilistic distributions of results. But this treatment of uncertainty might not resound with decision makers, who might prefer the simplicity of one single estimate. In this study, we attempt to tackle and communicate uncertainty...

Goal Setting, Framing, and Anchoring Responses to Ecodriving Feedback

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Ecodriving, defined here as the adoption of energy efficient driving styles and practices (primarily moderating acceleration, top speed, increased coasting, and improved maintenance practices), has long been recognized as a potential source of reductions in transportation energy use. Estimates of energy savings attributed to ecodriving range widely, from less than 5% to as high as 20% depending on the driving and experimental context. To explore the effects on ecodriving of interaction between drivers and in-vehicle energy feedback, a customized, interactive energy feedback interface was deployed in a field test with real-world drivers. This paper presents the results of interviews with 46 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) drivers who were given the ecodriving feedback interface for a multi-week trial including an interface off (baseline) and on (treatment) condition. This paper relies specifically on self-reports of driver motivations and behaviors to better understand what...

Interpersonal Influence and Pro-Societal Consumption: A Review of Diffusion, Conformity, Dissemination, Translation and Reflexivity

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Understanding consumption behavior will facilitate the successful deployment of new pro-societal products and behaviors. Interpersonal influence is thought to play an important role in the successive adoption of pro-societal products and behaviors within groups across time, but processes of influence are poorly understood. This paper begins by presenting a typology for new products according functional, symbolic and pro-societal attributes. Five perspectives on interpersonal influence and pro-societal consumption behavior are identified and summarized. Contagion focuses on the effect of functional information flowing among people or groups. Conformity focuses on individual thresholds and motivations to mimic others. Dissemination is the intentional diffusion of information by a core group of motivated individuals. Translation is the tendency for various social groups to negotiate interpretations and valuations of the technology. Finally, reflexivity is a theoretical framework...

Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018

Tue, 15 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This Biofuel Tracker: Capacity for Low Carbon Fuel Policies – Assessment through 2018 report follows the discontinued annual Advanced Biofuel Market Report produced by E2. This new report updates information on transportation biofuel production capacity since E2’s final publication in 2015. The report provides information on market plans for near‐term production capacity through 2018. It is neither a prediction nor a forecast of either capacity or actual production levels. Rather, it is one indication of potential North American production of fuel volume that meets the California carbon intensity rating cut‐off in the next couple of years, given favorable market conditions and the current policy environment. For commercially emerging technologies and fuels, production capacity ranges are assessed based on company and media reports, and are filtered through a subjective evaluation of the likelihood of announced capacity coming online in the 2018 time frame. The low end of the production...

Reflexive layers of influence (RLI): A model of social influence, vehicle purchase behavior, and pro-societal values

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Understanding consumer purchase behavior will facilitate the successful deployment of new vehicle technologies that offer societal benefits—such as plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEVs). To move beyond the rational actor model and similarly simplified behavioral approaches, this paper proposes an integrative, theoretically rich alternative: reflexive layers of influence (RLI). RLI is a framework that accounts for the role of social influence in an actor’s (or car buyer’s) development of pro-societal values and purchase behavior. Informed by a multidisciplinary literature review and empirical observation, RLI represents three layers that underlie the actor’s behavior; social influence is characterized by different processes at each layer. The bottom layer is the actor’s functional awareness of the vehicle, which can be influenced by the diffusion of simple information—such as the vehicle’s existence and basic purpose—from other actors or information sources. Next is the actor’s assessment...

EV Explorer: Evaluating a Vehicle Informational Tool

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

This paper reports the evaluation of EV Explorer, an online vehicle informational tool. EV Explorer allows users to compare fuel costs for different vehicles based on their own commuting patterns, charging opportunities, vehicle mileage, and local fuel prices. All these inputs can be adjusted by the user for a tailored estimate of annual fuel costs for up to four user-selected vehicles at a time. Default vehicle comparisons promote consideration of plug-in hybrid electric and fully electric vehicles (PEVs). The authors evaluated EV Explorer through online experimentation, gauging users’ perceptions—before and after using the website—of their current fuel costs, potential savings with PEVs, attitude toward PEV charging, and intention to buy or lease a PEV in the future. Statistically significant changes in each of these variables validate EV Explorer as an educational tool and a persuasive eco-feedback intervention to promote the adoption of PEVs.

California Statewide Charging Assessment Model for Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Learning from Statewide Travel Surveys

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Electric vehicle travel and charging was simulated using gasoline vehicle travel information from approximately 15,000 households in the CalTrans 2001 California Statewide Travel Survey. Ranges of 60, 80, and 100 miles were simulated to investigate the travel that could not be completed with home charging alone. Different types of chargers including workplace level 1 and level 2 chargers, level 2 public chargers, and DC quick chargers were then posited to determine the effect of each charging type on electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT). If all statewide vehicle were 80 mile range battery electric vehicle (BEVs) and began the day with a full charge, 71% of miles (95% of home-based tours) are possible with home charging alone. Travel that requires some charging accounts for a corresponding 29% of miles (5% of tours). Workplace charging can enable about 7% more eVMT, public level 2 at stops greater than 1.5 hours could provide an additional 4% of eVMT, and quick charging could...

First Look at the Plug-in Vehicle Secondary Market

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

In most markets in the world there are very few used PEVs. California is one of the first markets to have a significant secondary market - about 5-8% of the almost 200,000 PEVs in California are being used by a second owner. Looking at the market for conventional vehicles, used vehicle sales comprise the clear majority of all transactions while the new vehicle buyers are a small share of the households, making used PEV sales potentially very significant on the market as a whole. As the number of used PEVs grows, the secondary market for PEVs will have an increasing effect as used PEV buyers join new buyers in adopting a new technology. Can these used vehicles provide environmentally friendly choices to those who do not buy new vehicles? Is range degradation an important factor in the use and purchase of the vehicles? Do the subsidies provided by State, Federal and local authorities pass to the second owner and by how much? This report explores the used PEVs in the market and the...

Preliminary Results from a Field Experiment of Three Fuel Economy Feedback Designs

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Energy feedback to drivers is one method to engage drivers in energy saving driving styles. In contrast to the occasional broadcasting of general driving tips, in-vehicle energy feedback gives drivers access to accurate information about their specific driving situation on an ongoing basis. The increasing prevalence of such feedback in new vehicles suggests a belief that ongoing, in-vehicle feedback is better. However, there is little reliable evidence of the effectiveness of energy feedback in real-word driving in passenger vehicles. This study begins to fill this gap. Participants are given a commercially available fuel consumption display and recording device to use in their personal vehicle for two months. For the first month the display is blank as the device records a baseline of driving and fuel consumption. For the second month the display is switched on to show drivers one of three feedback designs. This paper presents preliminary results (N=36) of a larger study that...

Households’ Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Recharging Behavior: Observed variation in households’ use of a 5kWh blended PHEV-conversion

Mon, 14 Oct 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which run on both electricity from the grid and gasoline, are touted as providing some of the societal and environmental benefits of electric vehicles for a large portion of motorists’ daily travel, while also acting as a transitional technology toward fully electric vehicles. To test analysts’ assumptions about how PHEV users will recharge their vehicles, the observed recharging behaviors of forty households that participated in a PHEV demonstration in Northern California are reported. Recharging behavior is summarized across all households’ last week of their four-week PHEV trial period with regards to the time-of-day, frequency of plugging-in, and electricity demand to recharge the vehicles. While the means of the frequency distribution of plug-in events among demonstration households is similar to prior recharging assumptions made by analysts, the distributions are not symmetrical about the mean and there exists a large variation in...

City of Vancouver EV Infrastructure Strategy Report

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The role of the local government in supporting the growth and maintenance of a strong plug‐in electric vehicle market in Vancouver is evaluated in this report. This report identifies areas of action in which a local government, such as Vancouver, can impact their region based on a thorough understanding of the current plug‐in vehicle market, international demonstration projects, and research efforts. Specifically, workplace and public charging is needed to reinforce and fulfill the gaps from home‐based charging in dense urban regions. Local government can encourage investments in workplace and public charging by providing clear regional guidelines for installers and customers, providing appropriate incentives to businesses, allowing for an innovative marketplace in the vehicle charging industry, and collaborating with the regional utility to identify specific opportunities for optimization and encouragement of utility rates and vehicle‐grid interactions.

Do bicycling experiences and exposure influence bicycling skills and attitudes? Evidence from a bicycle-friendly university

Fri, 3 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000

Life changes are often associated with changes in travel behavior, due to a break in habitual travel cues and the introduction of a novel travel context. Universities provide a particularly appropriate setting to examine how these life changes can bring about changes in travel attitudes, 27 norms, and skills – which together form a psychological construct called “motility” that describes the capability for travel. In this study, I pool data from seven years of the University of California, Davis’ annual campus travel survey to create a longitudinal panel, and use a retrospective survey to collect the bicycling behaviors, attitudes, and skills of undergraduates every year since they graduated from high school. I find that, on average, UCD undergraduates’ pro-bicycling attitudes decrease slightly over time while bicycling skills increase substantially throughout college. I then use the retrospective panel data to estimate a statistical model to analyze the influence of bicycling...

Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems

Tue, 13 Nov 2018 00:00:00 +0000

Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Net emissions of CO2 by human activities - including not only energy services and industrial production but also land use and agriculture - must approach zero in order to stabilize global mean temperature. Energy services such as light-duty transportation, heating, cooling, and lighting may be relatively straightforward to decarbonize by electrifying and generating...

A First Look at Vehicle Miles Travelled in Partially-Automated Vehicles

Mon, 24 Sep 2018 00:00:00 +0000

This paper contributes to research investigating the impact of automated and partially automated vehicles on travel behavior. This contribution comes from taking a first look at the impact of partially/semi-automated (SAE Level 2) vehicles on travel behavior and potential correlations with vehicle miles travelled (VMT). The results of this study are taken from a questionnaire survey of 3,001 plug-in electric (PEV) owners in the USA, of which 347 own a partially-automated vehicle (e.g Tesla Model S with Autopilot). This study looks at the VMT of different vehicle types in the survey including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and semi-automated BEVs. This comparison reveals that semi-automated BEVs have significantly higher VMT compared to other vehicle types. Least squares regression is used to understand VMT in semi-automated BEVs further. This reveals a significant relationship between commute distance, age, household income, house type, and the frequency...

Modeling Poplar Growth as a Short Rotation Woody Crop for Biofuels

Thu, 10 Jul 2014 00:00:00 +0000

Short rotation woody crops (SRWC) such as hybrid poplar are potential feedstocks for cellulosic derived biofuels. The ability to accurately predict the growth and biomass yields of SRWC under various environmental conditions is important for predicting economic performance and overall sustainability of the biofuel production system. Tree coppicing is often used in the management of SRWC plantations. Modeling the response of the SRWC to the coppice cycle is a requirement in long term predictions of stand productivity. The objective of this study was to develop a model of poplar growth to evaluate feedstock supply potentials under different production conditions including coppicing. This was accomplished by modifying thePhysiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3PG) model originally developedby Landsberg et al. (1997) to include a simple root interaction system to simulate the sprouting and regrowth of coppiced trees. The modified model,

3PG-AHB, was tested against...

Initial Scoping of Bay Area Smart Mobility Corridors and ITS World Congress

Tue, 19 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) is a multi-year project designed to encourage the early deployment of innovative technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) in California. ITS technologies are defined through a broad array of information and vehicle control technologies that are designed to improve traffic and transit management including safety, user choice, congestion, and incident response. For over a decade, ITS technologies have been gaining acceptance and are now utilized in every major metropolitan area in the United States to enhance transportation system management.

However, the full potential of ITS technologies to revolutionize transportation system management and enhance individual decisions remains to be fulfilled. A critical impediment to realizing the full potential of ITS is the dichotomy between the public sector owning and operating the roadways and transit systems for the public benefit and the private sector inventing and operating...

Improving Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District Connectivity and Access with the Segway Human Transporter and Other Low-Speed Mobility Devices

Tue, 19 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

To evaluate the potential for low-speed modes to improve transit access, a field test has been designed that will offer shared-use Segway Human Transporters (HT), electric bicycles, and bicycles linked to a Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) District station and surrounding employment centers. Because of safety concerns, research was conducted to better understand the risks associated with these modes and potential risk factors. First, a review of the safety literature indicates that user error is the major cause of low-speed mode crashes and significant risk factors are poor surface conditions and obstructions to drivers' vision. As a result, an extensive training program and carefully selected routes have been included in the field test. Second, the regulatory and legislative history of the HT is chronicled to understand how concerns about its interaction with pedestrians have produced legislation that includes specific safety requirements. The low-speed modes used in this project...

Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: Outlook for 2010, 2030, and 2050

Wed, 6 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Proceedings of "The 10-50 Solution: Techonologies and Policies for a Low-Carbon-Future" Workshop, The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, and the National Commission on Energy Policy

Hydrogen is potentially very important for our nation's energy future. Hydrogen is one of the few widely available, long-term fuel options for simultaneously addressing energy security and environmental quality (including both deep reductions of greenhouse gases and pollutants). Use of hydrogen could transform the ways we produce and use energy. But is future large-scale use of hydrogen a foregone conclusion? Although the potential is tremendous, in the author's view, it is still too early to tell exactly how large hydrogen's role will become over the next 50 years. While a large scale hydrogen economy by 2050 cannot be considered inevitable at this point, a vigorous program of RD&D on hydrogen can be considered a prudent insurance policy against the need to begin radical decarbonization...

Heavy-Duty Truck Idling Characteristics: Results from a Nationwide Survey

Wed, 6 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Heavy-duty truck engine idling results in significant costs, fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and engine maintenance. Two promising alternatives to idling, grid connection ("shore power") and onboard auxiliary power units (APUs), are being pursued by industry and government. Their attractiveness is uncertain, however, because of limited information about truck operations and driver behavior. A nationwide survey of long-haul truck drivers was conducted to characterize truck operations and driver behavior better. Key variables included usage rates for accessories, duration of idling, and engine speed at idle. It was found that long-haul truck engines idled for an average of 34% of total engine run time, roughly 1,700 h per truck annually. But these averages are deceptive. Approximately 10% of drivers reported idling 10% or less of engine run time, while another 100;" reported idling more than 54% of engine run time, with differences related to season, truck ownership, company...

California's Innovative Corridors Initiative: A New Model for Public-Private Partnerships in Transportation

Mon, 4 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

California's Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) is a multi-year project to test a new approach for accelerating the deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies, products, and services along major California corridors. As part of the effort, ICI governmental partners developed a Call for Submissions (CFS) to solicit proposals for pilot demonstration projects to be showcased in conjunction with the forthcoming 2005 ITS World Congress in San Francisco, California. The unique nature of the project is that no public funds will be awarded as part of the solicitation. In this paper, the authors explore public-private partnerships as a means to accelerate ITS deployment, including legislative and initiative-based approaches to partnership. A review of the public-private partnership literature in transportation reveals several case studies that involve access to public rights-of-way or other public facilities. The authors present lessons learned from three...

Conceptual Design of Optimized Fossil Energy Systems with Capture and Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide

Mon, 4 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000

In this final progress report, we describe research results from Phase I of a technical/economic study of fossil hydrogen energy systems with CO2 sequestration. This work was performed under NETL Award No. DE-FC26-02NT41623, during the period September 2002 through August 2004.

The primary objective of the study is to better understand system design issues and economics for a large-scale fossil energy system co-producing H2 and electricity with CO2 sequestration. This is accomplished by developing analytic and simulation methods for studying the entire system in an integrated way. We examine the relationships among the different parts of a hydrogen energy system, and identify which variables are the most important in determining both the disposal cost of CO2 and the delivered cost of H2.

A second objective is to examine possible transition strategies from today's energy system toward one based on fossil-derived H2 and electricity with CO2 sequestration. We carried...

California's Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate: Linking Clean-Fuel Cars, Carsharing, and Station Car Strategies

Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

To reduce transportation emissions and energy consumption, policy makers typically employ one of two approaches—changing technology or changing behavior. These strategies include demand management tools, such as ridesharing and vehicle control technologies that involve cleaner fuels and fuel economy. Despite the benefits of a combined policy approach, these strategies are normally employed separately. Nevertheless, they have been linked occasionally, for instance in the electric station car programs of the 1990s. Station cars are vehicles used by transit riders at the start or end of a trip. In 1990, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) focused on reducing mobile air pollution by mandating that automakers introduce clean vehicles through its Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate. In 1998, significant flexibility was introduced through partial ZEV credits for very-low-emission vehicles. In 2000, CARB left the ZEV mandate intact, but began considering new approaches, including...

Analysis of Consumer Response to Automobile Regulation and Technological Change in Support of California Climate Change Rulemaking

Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Unavailable.

Analysis of Auto Industry and Consumer Response to Regulations and Technological Change, and Customization of Consumer Response Models in Support of AB 1493 Rulemaking: Effect of Emissions Regulation on Vehicle Attributes, Cost, and Price

Tue, 28 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

This report documents the automotive industry's response to federal regulations of light duty vehicle tailpipe emissions, with the intent of identifying lessons learned that might be applicable to future regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. The focus is on 1975 and 1979-1981, when new standards took effect that led directly to the adoption of costly new emission control equipment. The costs were significant during those time periods — with almost all automakers installing new oxidation catalyst technology in the first time period and three-way catalytic converters in the second. However, prices of new vehicles did not appear to reflect the full costs of emissions control. Other cost and pricing considerations seemed to be even more important. The added compliance costs associated with emissions reduction were just one more factor used by companies in setting prices. Aggregate new car sales were affected only in a minor way by emissions regulations.

An Input-Output Analysis of the Relationships between Communications and Travel for Industry

Mon, 27 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Numerous public policies have been promulgated on the assumption that telecommunications will be a useful trip reduction instrument. However, many scholars have suggested that the predominant effect of telecommunications may be complementarity — increasing travel. Although short-term, disaggregate studies of single applications such as telecommuting have tended to find a substitution effect, more comprehensive studies, on the aggregate scale, are needed. One of the few such studies used input-output analysis to examine relationships between transportation and communication input intensities across 44 industry classes in Europe for 1980, and found strong evidence of complementarity. The present study has applied a similar methodology to the inputoutput accounts for the US across multiple points in time.

Specifically, this study applied the input-output analysis technique developed by Leontief in 1936 to analyze the relationship between transportation and communications...

A Framework for Testing Innovative Transportation Solutions: A Case Study of Carlink—A Commuter Carsharing Program

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Transit accounts for just two percent of total travel in the U.S. One reason for low ridership is limited access; many individuals either live or work too far from a transit station. In developing transit connectivity solutions, researchers often employ a range of study instruments, such as stated-preference surveys, focus groups, and pilot programs. To better understand response to one innovative transit solution, the authors employed a number of research tools, including: a longitudinal survey, field test, and pilot program. The innovation examined was a commuter carsharing model, called CarLink, which linked short-term rental vehicles to transit and employment centers. Over several years, researchers explored user response to the CarLink concept, a field operational test (CarLink I), a pilot program (CarLink II), and a commercial operation (the pilot was turned over to Flexcar in summer 2002). This multi-staged approach provided an opportunity for researchers to learn and...

A Simplified Integrated Model for Studying Transitions to a Hydrogen Economy

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Many past studies of the 'Hydrogen Economy' have presented a steady-state portrait of a mature pathway from hydrogen production and distribution through utilization. One of the key problems surrounding the hydrogen economy is the large cost of building the infrastructure. The desire to reduce these costs associated with hydrogen infrastructure development leads to models and analysis of the dynamics of how a hydrogen supply infrastructure might grow over time, as demand for hydrogen increases in the transportation sector. To fully model hydrogen transitions is immensely complex, involving not only matching hydrogen supply and demand, but also how hydrogen interacts with the rest of the energy system, the economy, the environment and policy.

As a first approach to understanding transitions, we are developing a simplified model of the hydrogen economy – including alternative feedstocks, production technologies, distribution modes and demand scenarios. This model will be...

Work Plan for: "Investigation of Noise, Durability, Permeability and Friction Performance Trends for Asphaltic Pavement Surface Types," PPRC Strategic Plan Item 4.16

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The central purpose of this research is to support the Caltrans Quiet Pavement Pilot Program. The research conforms with FHWA guidance provided to State DOTs that conduct tire/pavement noise research. The broader purpose of this research is to support the Caltrans Quieter Pavements Road Map and Work Plan, with goals and objectives that address quiet as well as permeable asphalt surfaces for pavements.

Results from this research will identify best practice for selecting asphaltic surfaces based on performance trends identified from field measurements for noise, permeability, friction and durability. Results will include a literature survey and creation of a database of California materials, designs, and specifications plus similar information from other states and Europe to identify potentially better mixes. Results also will determine whether there is a correlation between laboratory sound absorption as measured by impedance tube and field noise intensity, which could...

A Multi-Objective Analysis of Regional Transportation and Land Development Policies

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

To address roadway congestion problems, communities throughout the nation that are at risk for air quality problems are proposing major and costly beltway highway projects. In this study, an integrated land use and transportation model and an advanced travel demand model linked to a land allocation model are applied to evaluate different combinations of transit and highway investment alternatives, land use measures, and an auto pricing policy in the Sacramento region. Four policy and methodological questions are addressed in the simulation and evaluation of policy scenarios in this case study. First, what are the respective models' strengths and weaknesses, and what effect does this have of their evaluation of policies. Second, can transit investment, auto-pricing policies, and land use measures be just as, or more, effective in reducing congestion as highway alternatives and have the added benefit of improving air quality and protecting environmentally sensitive lands? Third,...

Accelerating Deployment & Commercialization of ITS Technologies: California's Innovative Corridors Initiative

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) show great potential for improving transportation system efficiency for users and system operators. Over the past decade, ITS technologies have been deployed in every major U.S. metropolitan area, on rural highways, and in smaller cities. However, institutional questions (e.g., interoperability and access to public rights-of-way) related to public-private partnerships must be addressed to facilitate ITS deployment and mainstreaming. Public agencies need to see tangible system management benefits, and the private sector must be able to demonstrate compelling business models. California's Innovative Corridors Initiative (ICI) is a multi-year effort with the goal of accelerating the development, testing, commercialization, and deployment of innovative Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies, products, and services along major California corridors. The public sector is testing "a new way of doing business," by partnering with...

A Review of the Representation of Induced Highway Travel in Current Travel and Land Use Models

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

A considerable body of research on induced travel has emerged over the last several decades, and induced travel has been acknowledged by the U.S. Transportation Research Board and Environmental Protection Agency. This has brought renewed attention to the representation of induced travel in regional land use and travel demand models. A number of case studies (Sacramento, CA, Chittenden, VT, and Salt Lake City, UT) have assessed the ability of existing travel and land use models to represent the induced travel effects of new highway capacity (or elasticity of VMT with respect to lane miles and travel time). In addition, these studies have conducted sensitivity tests, by turning on and off model components, to isolate the relative contribution with respect to the models' representation of induced travel. The results indicate that when travel times are fed back to a land use model and/or the trip distribution step, then (1) models can represent induced travel within the range documented...

A Taxonomy of Leisure Activities: The Role of ICT

Fri, 17 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

A number of studies have examined the adoption of information and communication technology (ICT) and its impacts on personal travel, both at a general level and in the context of a particular kind of activity. While it is not surprising that initial attention has focused on the effects of ICT on travel for mandatory and maintenance activities, discretionary or leisure activities have received relatively little attention from this perspective. This report offers a conceptual exploration of the potential impacts of ICTs on leisure activities and the associated travel.

We start by discussing some ideas about what leisure is and is not. We point out that one reason for the nebulous nature of the concept of leisure is that the boundaries between leisure, mandatory, and maintenance activities are permeable, for three reasons: the multi-attribute nature of a single activity, the sequential interleaving of activity fragments, and the simultaneous conduct of multiple activities...

Summary of Construction Activities and Results from Six Initial Accelerated Pavement Tests Conducted on Asphalt Concrete Pavement Section for Modified-Binder Overlay

Thu, 9 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

This report summarizes the activities and data collected during the construction of a pavement section used for investigating the performance of asphalt concrete pavements under accelerated pavement testing. This report also presents the preliminary results of six accelerated pavement tests conducted on the test section.

The pavement section was constructed in September 2001 at the Pavement Research Center, located at the University of California Richmond Field Station. The construction was performed by a highway contractor with the purpose of simulating highway paving operations. Under these conditions, the results from the tests can be translated into predicting the behavior of actual in-service pavements.

The pavement was composed of 90 mm of asphalt concrete, and 410 mm of recycled aggregate base on top of a prepared 200 mm subgrade. The layer thicknesses were designed according to Caltrans design procedures and checked using mechanistic methods to ensure limited...

Technical Options For Distributed Hydrogen Refueling Stations in a Market Driven Situation

Thu, 9 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Many studies have already addressed the tradeoffs between the various hydrogen refueling stations, but few studies have worked on how a station should be managed on a day by day basis, in a market driven situation. No data are already available since the existing H2 stations are still in the permitting phase, and there are no big fleets refueling now. But parameters such as vehicle daily load profile, seasonality in demand, station electricity load, could have an influence on station design. Especially in the case where the hydrogen is produced locally at the station and stored as a gas, these problems could be a major hurdle if not considered prior to building the station: the combination of the storage, reformer compressor and dispenser must be sized for the most demanding day we can expect: but many station have a seasonality and a vehicle profile that will vary depending on the day of the week. There is also a tradeoff between the reformer size and the storage size: the...

Sensitivity Analysis of 2002 Design Guide Rigid Pavement Distress Prediction Models

Tue, 7 Sep 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The AASHTO 2002 Design Guide (2002DG) has been calibrated using Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) sections scattered throughout the nation but with very few sections from the state of California. This created the need to validate the models in 2002DG and recalibrate them if needed so that they may be used for pavement design and rehabilitation in California. In order to validate the design guide, a three-stage process has been identified: bench testing or sensitivity analysis, verification using accelerated pavement testing data, and verification using field data. The study presented in this report includes performing sensitivity analysis of the rigid part of 2002DG.

Sensitivity analysis helps to check the reasonableness of the model predictions, to identify problems in the software and to help understand the level of difficulty involved in obtaining the inputs. The reasonableness of the model predictions is checked by varying key design variables including traffic...

Rural Vehicles in China: Appropriate Policy for Appropriate Technology

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Over 3 million Chinese Rural Vehicles (CRVs) were produced in China in 2002, three times that of conventional passenger cars. Yet these smaller, simpler, indigenous vehicles are virtually unknown outside China. The CRV industry is unusual in that it evolved largely outside the control of government regulation and policy, using local technology and resources. CRVs now consume one fourth of the diesel fuel in China and play an important role in rural development. This paper is the first comprehensive assessment (in English or Chinese) of these vehicles and this remarkable industry. This study documents and analyzes vehicle technology, government policy, environmental impacts, market demand, and industry dynamics. We find that increasing government regulation (mostly for emissions and safety) is having profound effects on the industry, with uncertain implications for the sales and globalization of rural vehicle technology.

Renewable Hydrogen From Wind in California

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Proceedings of the National Hydrogen Association Annual Hydrogen Conference (NHA 2005), Washington, DC, March 29 - April 1, 2005

Hydrogen produced from renewable electricity sources is frequently touted as the long-term goal for the hydrogen economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the technical and economic realities of using wind power to produce hydrogen on a large scale in the state of California. Because of the relatively clean electricity grid, and its work on development of a hydrogen highway, California provides a near-term opportunity for examining a renewable hydrogen future.

This paper examines the results of a techno-economic model of several major wind resources and electric utility demand profiles in California which looked at sizing and cost implications for hydrogen station components as well as various control strategies for maximizing the benefits to the local utility grid. In addition to the technical questions regarding the nature of...

Relationship between DCP, Stiffness, Shear Strength, and R-value

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

A brief review of some studies undertaken reveal that direct relationships between DCP penetration and R-value are not reliable for general use in California. Limited studies appear to have been carried out and any relationships developed are based on very small samples that have significant variation. Good correlations between DCP penetration and shear strength and DCP penetration and stiffness have been developed, although these are material property dependent and need to be used with caution. Very little work on the development of relationships between these properties and R-value appears to have been carried out. Thus attempting to predict R-value from DCP penetration indirectly through the shear strength or stiffness will be very unreliable. A statistically valid relationship between DCP penetration and R-value is probably feasible in that some soil properties influencing the result are common to both. However, a very large experiment will need to be carried out in order...

Optimal Dynamic Strategy of Building a Hydrogen Infrastructure in Beijing

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Proceedings of the 4th Annual Asia Pacific Conference on Transportation and the Environment

This paper describes the on-going Hydrogen Infrastructure Transition (HIT) modeling efforts with the Beijing case study. HIT uses dynamic programming to generate optimal decisions on when, where, at what sizes and by what technologies to build up a regional hydrogen infrastructure while minimizing the discounted value of facility cost, environmental disbenefit and travel time disbenefit.

In the case study, we use the 380-kilometer Beijing urban expressway network for spatial representation and 2010~2060 as the transition study period. We relied on Beijing Master Plan, demographic projection and traffic data in estimating spatial distribution and temporal growth of hydrogen demand. Gaseous fueling station, natural gas steam reforming onsite, water electrolysis onsite, water electrolysis central plant, coal gasification central plant (with and without carbon dioxide sequestration),...

Integrating Community Values and Fostering Interagency Collaboration through Outreach with Interactive GIS Models

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The Merced County Association of Governments (MCAG) was chosen by the Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Department of Transportation to pilot a new program, Partnership for Integrated Planning (PIP), which aimed to: streamline planning and the project-delivery process; avoid environmental impacts; foster collaboration among planning, transportation, and environmental agencies; and engage the public at the beginning of long-term transportation planning.

Merced County provides a challenging test case through rapid population growth, cultural diversity, high unemployment, and increasing conflicts between stewardship of sensitive habitats and prime farmland and demands for transportation improvements and housing.

The Partnership for Integrated Planning (PIP) included the development of geographic information system (GIS) tools for modeling growth and environmental impacts to produce real-time maps and tables resulting...

Laboratory Evaluation of Corrosion Resistance of Steel Dowels in Concrete Pavement

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

The objective of this study was to perform a laboratory investigation of the corrosion performance of several types of steel dowels embedded in concrete beams. The concrete beams and dowels were subjected to exposure to concentrated chloride solutions intended to accelerate corrosion and simulate environmental conditions. The purpose of this investigation was to develop recommendations for use of different types of dowels for different environmental risk conditions. To provide an indication of the aggressiveness of the laboratory conditions relative to field conditions, a set of field slabs from Washington State was examined, and chloride content analyses were performed on the concrete beams used in the laboratory studies and on cores taken from nine locations in Washington State.

HVS Testing of the Palmdale Test Site, North Tangent Sections: Evaluation of Long Life Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies-Rigid

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

As part of the Caltrans Long Life Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies (LLPRS), a concrete pavement constructed with fast setting strength hydraulic cement concrete (FSHCC) and Portland cement concrete (PCC) blend was constructed on State Route 14 about 5 miles south of Palmdale, California. The test pavement was evaluated under Heavy Vehicle Simulator (HVS) testing beginning June 1999 and finishing December 2001. This report summarizes part of the testing program which was undertaken on three 70-m long test sections with a 200-mm thick FSHCC and the following design features:

* Section 7 was constructed with plain joints (no dowels), relying on aggregate interlock for joint load transfer, with an asphalt concrete shoulder and a normal lane width of 3.66 m. * Section 9 was constructed with dowels and a concrete shoulder with tie bars and a normal lane width of 3.66 m. * Section 11 was constructed using a widened truck lane (4.26 m wide) and doweled joints with an...

Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Refining the Message Initiating a National Dialogue and Educational Agenda

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Presented at the National Hydrogen Association Annual Hydrogen Conference (NHA 2005), Washington, DC, March 29 - April 1, 2005

The first step, in any program of self-improvement, is admitting you have a problem. My friends and colleagues, I would like to talk to you today about two big problems. We have a communication problem--communicating with our fellow citizens whose political, economic, and moral support we will need to achieve our transportation energy goals. We have an education problem--educating the professionals with the knowledge required to understand these goals and create the necessary technologies and strategies to achieve them.

Goal 4 Long Life Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies-Rigid: Flexural Fatigue Life of Hydraulic Cement Concrete Beams

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

This document compares the results of flexural fatigue tests performed on experimental concrete beams made of the standard Caltrans concrete mix and five other fast-setting mixes. The three research objectives were: to investigate the fatigue characteristics of the fast-setting mixes, to compare the fatigue life of all the mixes tested, and to contrast this experiment's results with those of similar published studies.

The experimental concrete samples included the standard Caltrans mix (using Portland cement type I/II) and five fast-setting mixes that used one of three cements: Portland cement type III, calcium sulfoaluminate, or calcium aluminate. Beams were fabricated from each mixture were used to determine the materials' flexural strength (or modulus of rupture) and fatigue life (or number of cycles to failure) at stress ratio levels of 0.70 and 0.85, and, in most cases 0.75.

Three subsequent data analyses compared the number of cycles to failure of each mix...

Hydrogen Strategies: an Integrated Resource Planning Analysis for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Infrastructures

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Proceedings of the International Hydrogen Energy Congress and Exhibition (IHEC 2005), Istanbul, Turkey, 13 - 15 July 2005

Major funding programs for RD&D started worldwide and the booming hydrogen-energy research field are clear symptoms of an increased attention focus on hydrogen as the next best energy option.

How does this flourishing of activities translate into effective steps towards a hydrogen economy? What are the best options for the development of hydrogen-energy infrastructures from the embryonic stages to their well-established perspective roles in the wider regional, national and international energy economies? What are the real benefits delivered by hydrogen energy systems in terms of reduced energy dependence and environmental load of energy-related activities? What are the possible synergies and interplays with the other energy pathways?

The key elements and ultimately the shape of future hydrogen energy economies will depend on their geo-economic...

Forecasting exurban development to evaluate the influence of land-use policies on wildland and farmland conservation

Mon, 16 Aug 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Exurbia (rural low-density residential development) is one of the fastest growing types of land-use and can result in habitat fragmentation and loss of farmland. Local zoning restrictions and farmland protection are the most common ways of controlling low-density development in rural areas. While planners have recognized the utility of landuse change models for decision-making, most models do not effectively forecast exurban expansion. To rectify this problem, a spatially explicit model called UPlan that projects exurban development was adapted for Sonoma County California, where an estimated 27% of the people live at low densities (< 1 unit/0.8 ha [2 acres]). The projected pattern and extent of development resulting from three alternate agricultural land protection policies were compared, and the likely impact on natural areas and farmland was assessed. The results reveal that if current farmland is not protected from exurban development, 73% of all Sonoma County’s remaining...

Field-assisted sintering of Ni nanopowders