Recent itsdavis_sfreight_reports items

Market Prospects of Fuel Cell vs. Battery-Electric Trucks in Medium- and Heavy-Duty Segments in California, 2025 to 2040

Mon, 3 Feb 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This report evaluates the market prospects for medium- and heavy-duty fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) and battery-electric trucks (BETs) in comparison to diesel trucks in California from 2025 to 2040. It specifically examines the market feasibility challenges facing FCETs and provides updates on technological advancements in fuel cell systems, including projections for future developments. The report presents a comprehensive cost analysis of BETs and FCETs, covering the vehicles and the necessary infrastructure. This includes total cost of ownership (TCO) considerations as well as non-cost factors such as driving range, refueling/recharging times, and their influence on the projected demand for these trucks. In additional, it provides a detailed assessment of infrastructure expenses, comparing the costs of battery-charging facilities for electric trucks with those of hydrogen refueling stations for FCETs. Finally, the study forecasts market shares under various scenarios over...

The Infrastructure Cost for Depot Charging of Battery Electric Trucks

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Electric vehicle (EV) depot charging increases the feasibility for fleet operators to convert fleets from internal combustion engine vehicles to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This study considers two example cases: a fleet of medium-duty delivery trucks and a fleet of heavy-duty short-haul trucks. In both cases, trucks are charged at a depot by direct current (DC) fast chargers (50 kW, 150 kW, or 350 kW), and we estimate charging infrastructure cost as a function of the EV fleet size. Results indicate that per-vehicle infrastructure cost will decrease substantially as the fleet size increases, though infrastructure cost is very sensitive to charger utilization rates. The higher the charger utilization, the lower the infrastructure cost will be, as the depot will need fewer chargers installed given a certain number of vehicles being charged. Therefore, one cost reduction strategy is to improve daily utilization rates to reduce the charger count demand and eventually reduce the...

Vehicle Choice Modeling for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles in California

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Vehicle Choice Modeling for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles in California

Coping with the Rise of E-commerce Generated Home Deliveries through Innovative Last-mile Technologies and Strategies

Wed, 17 May 2023 00:00:00 +0000

E-commerce can potentially make urban goods flow economically viable, environmentally efficient, and socially equitable. However, as e-retailers compete with increasingly consumer-focused services, urban freight witnesses a significant increase in associated distribution costs and negative externalities, particularly affecting those living close to logistics clusters. Hence, to remain competitive, e-retailers deploy alternate last-mile distribution strategies. These alternate strategies, such as those that include the use of electric delivery trucks for last-mile operations, a fleet of crowdsourced drivers for last-mile delivery, consolidation facilities coupled with light-duty delivery vehicles for a multi-echelon distribution, or collection-points for customer pickup, can restore sustainable urban goods flow. Thus, in this study, the authors investigate the opportunities and challenges associated with alternate last-mile distribution strategies for an e-retailer offering...

Jobs and Automated Freight Transportation: How Automation Affects the Freight Industry and What to Do About It

Fri, 2 Dec 2022 00:00:00 +0000

The expansion of automation in the U.S. economy is increasingly tangible and will presumably entail positive and negative impacts that are not yet well understood. In the freight sector, there is uncertainty about how and when automation will impact labor. Beyond this, there are further unknowns about what the impacts will be on such freight subsectors as warehousing, long- and short-haul. It is expected that penetration rates of freight automation will vary across subsectors. In some subsectors, new jobs will be created and/or working conditions will improve. Other subsectors will see declining job quality and/or job losses that require workers to transition to new roles or sectors entirely, when possible. Changes in job opportunities and quality will vary within sectors and subsectors, by region, and/or by firm. This study offers an overview and recommendations in three directions. First, despite the uncertainties and based on past and present examples of automation, it provides...

National Impacts of E-commerce Growth: Development of a Spatial Demand Based Tool

Fri, 9 Sep 2022 00:00:00 +0000

This project aims to study the impacts of e-commerce on shopping behaviors and related externalities. The objectives are divided into five major tasks in this project. Methods used include Weighted Multinomial Logit (WMNL) models, time series forecasting, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. The American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) databases are used for identifying the independent and dependent variables for behavioral modeling. At the same time, the researchers collected all MSA population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and combined the shares of each variable from ATUS to generate a synthesized population, which serves as input into the MC simulation framework together with the behavioral model. This simulation framework includes the generation of shopping travel parameters and the calculation of negative externalities. The authors do this to estimate e-commerce demand and impacts every decade until 2050. The results and...

Spatial Scenarios for Market Penetration of Plug-in Battery Electric Trucks in the U.S.

Thu, 23 Jun 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Carbon emissions targets require large reductions in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the near-to mid-term, and the transportation sector is a major emitter of GHGs. To understand potential pathways to GHG reductions, this project developed the U.S. Transportation Transitions Model (US TTM) to study various scenarios of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market penetration in the U.S. The model includes vehicle fuel economy, vehicle stock and sales, fuel carbon intensities, and costs for vehicles and fuels all projected through 2050. Market penetration scenarios through 2050 are input as percentages of sales for all vehicle types and technologies. Three scenarios were developed for the U.S.: a business as usual (BAU), low carbon (LC), and High ZEV scenario. The LC and High ZEV include rapid penetration of ZEVs into the vehicle market. The introduction of ZEVs requires fueling infrastructure to support the vehicles. Initial deployments of ZEVs are expected to be dominated by battery electric...

Estimating Maintenance and Repair Costs for Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Heavy Duty Trucks

Tue, 8 Feb 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Estimating Maintenance and Repair Costs for Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Heavy Duty Trucks

Fostering the Use of Zero and Near Zero Emission Vehicles in Freight Operations

Wed, 29 Jul 2020 00:00:00 +0000

California is in the midst of improving its freight system. For example, the California Sustainable Freight Action Plan (CSFAP) established the goal of reaching a 25% increase in freight efficiency, the use of 100,000 zero emission vehicles and equipment (and maximize the number of near zero emission vehicles) in the system, and improving economic competitiveness. Although there are multiple strategies and approaches to help achieve these goals, this study focuses on analyzing the factors to foster the adoption of zero and near-zero emission vehicles. For example, the use of monetary and non-monetary incentives to elucidate behavioral changes (e.g., fleet purchase decisions). This study considered compressed (renewable) natural gas (CNG/RNG), hybrid electric (HE), battery electric (BE) and fuel-cell hydrogen (H2) vehicles. The research team collected information through a web-based stated preference survey sent (in two waves) to fleets and carrier companies to gather data about...

Analytical Modeling Framework to Assess the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Residential Deliveries, and Evaluate Sustainable Last-Mile Strategies

Fri, 8 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000

In the last decade, e‐commerce has grown substantially, increasing business‐to‐business, business‐to‐consumer, and consumer‐to‐consumer transactions. While this has brought prosperity for the e-retailers, the ever-increasing consumer demand has brought more trucks to the residential areas, bringing along externalities such as congestion, air and noise pollution, and energy consumption. To cope with this, different logistics strategies such as the introduction of micro-hubs, alternative delivery points, and use of cargo bikes and zero emission vehicles for the last mile have been introduced and, in some cases, implemented as well. This project, hence, aims to develop an analytical framework to model urban last mile delivery. In particular, this study will build upon the previously developed econometric behavior models that capture e-commerce demand. Then, based on continuous approximation techniques, the authors will model the last-mile delivery operations. And finally, using...

Development of a Freight System Conceptualization and Impact Assessment (Fre‐SCANDIA) Framework

Fri, 1 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000

The freight system is a key component of California’s economy, but it is also a critical contributor to a number of externalities. Different public agencies, private sector stakeholders, and academia engaged in the development of the California Sustainable Freight Action Plan (CSFAP). This plan put forward a number of improvement strategies/policies. However, the freight system is so complex and multifaceted, with a great number of stakeholders, and freight operational patterns, that evaluating or assessing the potential impacts of such strategies/policies is a difficult task. To shed some light, this project develops a freight system conceptualization and impact assessment framework of the freight movements in the State. In doing this, the framework assesses the impact of commodity flows from different freight industry sectors along supply chains within, originating at, or with a destination in the state of California.

The conceptual framework analyzes the freight flows...