Recent igcc_PB items

Huawei is Quietly Dominating China's Semiconductor Supply Chain

Fri, 4 Oct 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In this policy brief, Antonia Hmaidi, Senior Analyst in the Science, Technology and Innovation Program at MERICS, analyzes Huawei, a company that is emerging as the leader of China’s national team in semiconductors, dominating chip manufacturing and seeking to integrate the country’s entire supply chain. Its ambitions stem from both its placement on the U.S. Entity List and strong government support at the national and local level. Internationally, Huawei is coy about these ambitions, hiding its supply chain involvement and often operating under a different company’s name. Meanwhile, Huawei’s experience is also encouraging other Chinese technology companies to support China’s quest for chip self-sufficiency, developing new hardware and software for that purpose. The clandestine nature of Huawei’s involvement—it is not known who serves what role in semiconductor production—makes it more difficult for Western companies and governments to assess China’s progress in technology, vet...

Guangdong's New R&D Institutes: China's Regional Tool for Innovation and Technology Transfer

Fri, 9 Aug 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In pursuit of technological development, China has created new organizations to promote innovation. In this brief, Marcus Conlé, an associate at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), examines New Research and Development Institutes (NRDIs), which are designed to foster knowledge transfer to industry. NRDIs were pioneered in Guangdong province in the 1990s, and have gained prominence in China’s national science, technology, and innovation policies since the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). NRDIs are defined by their market orientation and extremely flexible organizational form. They work by establishing “innovation platforms” with local governments and private knowledge actors to carry out research and development (R&D), commercialize scientific and technological achievements, incubate local technology industries, and cultivate high-end talent. NRDIs have been instrumental to regional development in Guangdong, and especially Shenzhen, where they have succeeded...

China's AI Development Model in an Era of Technological Deglobalization

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

As strategic rivalry between Beijing and Washington centers on new technologies, a trend towards decoupling and deglobalization is challenging the global links upon which China’s artificial intelligence (AI) sector has relied for a long time. This means that Beijing’s AI development strategy must contend with an erosion of global interdependencies. This policy brief from Rebecca Arcesati, a lead analyst at MERICS, examines three key elements of China’s response: an infrastructure megaproject for computing power, a “whole-of-nation” approach to developing AI foundation models, and efforts to forge connections with foreign innovation systems beyond the United States. None of these come without challenges.

Innovation in China: Domestic Efforts and Global Integration

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China’s remarkable rise as an international technology and innovation powerhouse comes courtesy of domestic efforts to upgrade its scientific enterprise. In this brief, Cong Cao, a professor in innovation studies at Nottingham University Ningbo China, argues that the globalization of science has also played a significant role, fostering links between Chinese and international researchers, allowing Chinese students to study abroad, and attracting foreign direct investment to China’s research sector. However, as pressures in Western countries to decouple from China mount, the future of China’s science, technology, and innovation system faces strong headwinds.

The Accelerator State: Small Firms Join the Fray of China's Techno-Industrial Drive

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China is creating an “accelerator state” through a multi-layered system to identify and fast track the growth of high-tech SMEs in strategic sectors. Certified high-tech SMEs enjoy unique advantages, most notably privileged access to public and private financing. In this policy brief, MERICS analyst Alexander Brown offers an analysis of the “Little Giants” program—a central feature of the accelerator state— that proves that selected firms are indeed benefiting from enhanced financing. The study also reveals flaws in its selection process. The implications for foreign actors are significant. The accelerator state aims to replace imports in key value chains, which poses a direct challenge to foreign firms. The blurred lines between state support and market forces in the scheme also make it more difficult for foreign governments to track distortionary practices and enforce fair competition.

China's Endless Frontier: "Organized Scientific Research" and the Quest for Technological Self-Reliance

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Chinese President Xi Jinping has advocated for scientific and technological self-reliance amid increasing global tensions over emerging technologies. So far though, reforms to China’s innovation ecosystem have fallen short of the goal of developing domestic versions of many of the technologies at the center of U.S.-China competition. In this policy brief, Michael Laha, a Berlin-based analyst and former German Chancellor Fellow at MERICS, explores the Chinese Ministry of Education’s new program called “organized scientific research,” which seeks to address this shortcoming. In so doing, the ministry aims to channel research resources toward strategically relevant sectors—especially those susceptible to U.S. restrictions—while maintaining space for free scientific exploration.

Between Two Economic Traps: Did China Peak in 2021?

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China’s uneven recovery from the pandemic and U.S.-imposed limits on the country’s access to technology could limit China’s ascent to become an economic peer to the United States. In this policy brief, Keun Lee, distinguished professor of economics at Seoul National University, analyzes recent economic data from the International Monetary Fund to reveal that while China’s rise to become a high-income country remains on course, the country remains far from rivaling the economic power of the United States.

The Communist Party's Steering of China's Science, Technology, and Innovation System: Aspirations and Reality

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In this policy brief, Anna L. Ahlers, founder and head of the Lise Meitner Research Group at the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (MPIWG), analyzes the Chinese Communist Party, which seeks to permeate every aspect of China’s social and economic life—including the realm of science, technology, and innovation. Chinese leadership has heightened calls for technological self-reliance and boosting indigenous innovation, but still recognizes the importance of foreign expertise and international collaboration for China’s domestic scientific efforts. Contradictions in the party’s approach to domestic science abound, and despite a visible politicization of scientific institutions, no discernable impact on China’s scientific production can be seen—yet. The Communist Party’s attempts to grow its influence in domestic science institutions nevertheless pose long-term risks to the quality of the country’s scientific output.

National Strategic Integration: How China Is Building Its Strategic Power

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in China’s overall priorities since coming to power in 2012. Under his leadership, China has sought to integrate the country’s economy, political system, society, and defense apparatus behind the goal of national security. This brief explores the newest and most sweeping iteration of that policy: national strategic integration, which aims to remake China into the global leader in technology and security.

Combating Climate Change Through Nuclear Energy: Risks, Advantages, and Geopolitical Implications of Advanced Small Nuclear Reactors

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Use of nuclear energy is likely to grow in the coming decades, in part to combat climate change. Increased deployment of nuclear energy will likely include use of advanced small reactors, which can facilitate decarbonization, increase nuclear safety, supplement gaps in renewable energy production, provide energy to low-demand communities, help desalinate water, and increase energy security. But there are also risks. Nuclear power, such as that produced by advanced small reactors, put nuclear material in more locations and use higher enrichment fuel for some reactor designs, both of which are security concerns. Moreover, while China and Russia already have operating advanced small reactors and are exploring using reactors aboard floating nuclear power plants, the U.S. will likely not have an operational advanced small reactor until the late 2020s. This brief explores the benefits and risks of advanced small nuclear reactors and describes strategies to mitigate these risks. The...

Re-engineering the Innovation Chain: How a New Phase of Government Intervention is Transforming China’s Industrial Economy

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Since 2020, China has dramatically increased the ambition, scope, and resources of its technology and industrial policy. The government has also expanded direct intervention in the economy, creating new organizational forms in order to link researchers, technology providers, and firms. This program aims to re-engineer the innovation chain—and with it, the entire industrial economy. In this policy brief, Barry Naughton, Sokwanlok Chair of Chinese International Affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego, analyzes the implications of these dramatic interventions. He argues that China’s program is weakly planned, scattershot, and incremental; highly protectionist in nature; and driven by security concerns. The economic impact of these moves, Naughton says, will almost certainly be negative—for China and for the world.

Whole-of-Nation Innovation: Does China's Socialist System Give it an Edge in Science and Technology?

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China wants to become a science, technology, and manufacturing superpower by upgrading and modernizing its industrial base and concentrating the nation’s innovation resources around strategic priorities. However, in this policy brief, Jeroen Groenewegen-Lau, head of the Science, Technology and Innovation program at MERICS, argues that it is difficult for the state to integrate innovation resources because of the gap separating universities and research organizations from industry, which impedes the translation of scientific output into technological prowess. By contrast, Beijing has been much more successful at directing industrial development. As a result, he says, achieving a modernized industrial base is now the dominant framework for Chinese policymakers as they pursue technological self-reliance.

The Quantum Race: U.S.-Chinese Competition for Leadership in Quantum Technologies

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Quantum computing is poised to unleash innovation across various sectors, from materials science to pharmaceutical and medical research, finance, logistics, and even climate change management. Quantum computing also has the potential to provide the backbone for future artificial intelligence and autonomous systems that cannot be realized with digital hardware alone, while quantum communication can strengthen security in cyberspace. For these reasons, quantum technologies feature prominently in the emerging technologies race between the United States and China. In this policy brief, IGCC postdoctoral fellow Juljan Krause analyzes China’s advances in quantum communication, which aim to signal China’s technological leadership while protecting Chinese communications from foreign surveillance. He argues that Chinese leadership in quantum communication will have strategic repercussions, particularly as it is likely to give China’s efforts to shape global industry standards additional...

(Re)Centralization: How China is Balancing Central and Local Power in Science, Technology, and Innovation

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China is centralizing its science and technology (S&T) sector while attempting to mitigate the costs of centralization. To this end, policymakers have designed “central-local joint action” mechanisms that balance the powers of central and local authorities. These mechanisms involve consultative processes led by the central government that aim to negotiate shared S&T investments in national priority areas with local authorities. In this policy brief, Siwen Xiao and Yaosheng Xu, research associates at IGCC, detail how these mechanisms are being implemented across three programs: the National Key Research and Development Program, the National Guidance Fund for Technology Transfer and Commercialization, and the National Centers of Technological Innovation. They also explore the challenges associated with recentralization and power balancing, which threaten to diminish China’s ambitious S&T goals to mere slogans, rather than unified and well-resourced national efforts.

When the River Runs Dry: Climate Change and the Political Economy of Hydropower Disruption

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Hydropower is the predominant renewable energy source globally and will play a key role in transitioning countries away from fossil fuels. Yet hydropower production is threatened by the effects of climate change, with significant implications for both energy security and the energy transition. In this policy brief, UC Berkeley PhD candidates Johnny Guy and Ishana Ratan, together with co-author Anthony Calacino, explore preliminary evidence from Brazil, Colombia, and Nepal that shows the multifaceted challenges hydropower-dependent nations face, and divergent responses governments have taken in response. They demonstrate why, in the face of increasing uncertainty, hydropower-dependent countries—already vulnerable to the impacts of seasonal disruptions to power supply—must develop robust strategies for load balancing and project risk management.

Decoding China's Technology and Industrial Policy: Seven Terms You Need to Know

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

China’s technology and industrial policy programs have grown in scope and intensity since 2020, but the vocabulary used to describe them is vague and often misleading. This policy brief decodes seven essential terms and shows that they have concrete and complementary meanings. When understood in concert, they reveal the establishment of a large-scale, government-directed program of mission-oriented research, development, and application. Together these terms outline a substantial expansion of the Chinese government’s direct role in organizing economic activity, and hint at some of the limits of that expansion.

Security at Sea: A Turning Point in Maritime

Fri, 7 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has been the pre-eminent naval power and ultimate guarantor of global maritime security. It has also been one of the primary beneficiaries of the global maritime economic system, which in turn resourced its naval strength and increased the incentive to use that strength to protect the freedom of the seas. But a number of global changes, all likely beyond the United States’ control, are driving new dynamics in both security and economics in the maritime domain. These challenges include the return of great power competition at sea, the maritime consequences of climate change, increased pollution, the rapid rise of illicit trade and resource exploitation, and the erosion of maritime governance.

These challenges are dynamic and inter-related—a change in one will often drive second and third order changes in the others. The United States has proven historically to be resilient and adaptive in the face of great challenges,...

How Does China’s Industrial Policy Support Specific Sectors?

Fri, 7 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The brief summarizes discussions and findings from the workshop on China’s Industrial Policy: Sectors and Resources, which was hosted by the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) with support from the UC San Diego 21st Century China Center, on September 30 – October 2, 2022. Held in La Jolla, California on the UC San Diego campus, the workshop examined Chinese industrial policies in the sectors in which China hopes to make the biggest technological leaps, including highperformance computing, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, solar, robots, aerospace, and biotech. Participants from leading universities, think tanks, and industry, along with U.S. government representatives, shared their research and observations along China’s industrial policy life cycle, from formulation to implementation.

Is the Pursuit of Nukes Driven by Leaders or Systems?

Fri, 7 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Nuclear weapons are widely regarded as one of the most lethal aspects of military arsenals ever created. As such, international relations and security experts have long been concerned about their proliferation. To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, both policymakers and academic researchers have focused on what are commonly thought to be the primary drivers of proliferation: security concerns and domestic politics and economies. This brief examines another important driver: the role of national leaders themselves. Based on a study of 1,400 leaders in office between 1945 and 2000, author Ellen Park shows that leader personality and experience drive decisions about whether—or not—to pursue nuclear weapons, a finding that holds true across countries (rather than being limited to a few unique cases). Put simply, the pursuit of nuclear weapons is systematically influenced by certain attributes of leaders, such as college major, socioeconomic background, and military and international...

Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2021–22

Fri, 7 Jun 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Military tensions are on the rise in Northeast Asia as the likes of China, North Korea, and the United States flex their combat capabilities—but this does not mean that war is imminent. This is an important insight from the latest Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index (DTI) for the period spanning 2021 to 2022. Carried out every two years by the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, the DTI offers a detailed examination of how open or closed major regional states are in disclosing information on their defense postures, including defense budgets, publication of official annual defense reports, legislative oversight, and the nature of external military activities.

The 2021–22 DTI found that there was only a marginal decline in the overall defense transparency level for Northeast Asia, with Japan showing a noteworthy improvement in its transparency performance. The concealment of defense activities is often an indicator that countries...

Are Gender Inclusive Militaries Better at Integrating Disruptive Technologies?

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Recent advances in big data and analytics, cyber security, automation, and artificial intelligence can make critical contributions to the demonstration of power on the international stage. New technologies not only offer militaries the ability to conduct operations with greater effectiveness but also reduce the potential human cost of operations. In an increasingly digitized world, organizations that do not adopt and leverage these advances can become inefficient and even fall by the wayside. Yet, despite the immense promise of emerging technologies, many organizations struggle to integrate and utilize them. This is true in both the military and business sectors. For business organizations, a failure to adopt and use novel technologies may threaten profits and even their survival. For militaries, where soldiers’ lives are on the line, the consequences can be even more severe. Why is the integration of new technologies often so difficult? This policy brief highlights an important...

China and the U.S. Compete for Global Techno-Security Dominance

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In the struggle for global geo-strategic and geo-economic supremacy between the United States and China, the technosecurity sphere where economics, technological innovation, and national security meet has become a principal battleground. Two contrasting models are pitted against each other: China’s state-led top-down approach and the United States’ marketdriven bottom-up system. Which of them will ultimately prevail will depend on how capable, robust, and adept they are in meeting the challenge of rapid and disruptive change. This brief examines the underpinnings of U.S.-China great power technosecurity competition and assesses what the countries’ different approaches imply for future techno-security rivalry.

Northeast Asia Defense Transparency Index 2020-21

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Growing distrust in East Asia, especially in the security arena, is increasingly critical as new and long-standing hotspots— including the Taiwan strait, Korean peninsula, East China Sea, and South China Sea—become more volatile. The need for confidence-building measures is clear, and a central tool of confidence building is defense transparency.

The Defense Transparency Index (DTI), a project of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ranks six countries on their efforts to promote transparency in defense and national security, including the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), the Republic of Korea, and the major external powers most involved in the region—the United States and Russia.

Inside China’s Techno-Security State

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.

Global Value Chains, Risk Perception, and Economic Statecraft

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Many countries, including the United States and China, have come to see economic statecraft as superior to armed conflict. Faced with a trading partner’s economic sanctions, some countries try to avoid risk by complying with or ignoring the coercer’s demands, but others retaliate and escalate conflict. In recent years, sanctions have been applied, not only to “rogue” states, but against trading partners. The United States and China, but also Japan, Australia, and Canada, were either the target or purveyor of economic coercion by or against trading partners in the last five years. However, not all resulted in trade wars. When, then, do economic sanctions lead to trade wars? This policy brief examines the ongoing Japan-South Korea trade dispute with a focus on how policymakers’ risk perceptions regarding global value chains (GVCs) can influence when trade wars take shape.

Maximizing the Benefits of Trade for Africa

Wed, 29 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

African countries are increasingly integrating into global supply chains (GSC). Yet the linkages between African and foreign firms and the impact of GSC activities on the development prospects of African states is not well understood. This policy brief analyzes GSC trade between the U.S. and China, on the one hand, and Southern African Customs Union (SACU) member states on the other. It shows that, contrary to the conventional wisdom that SACU states export raw materials with few value-added products, SACU states are actually positioned further up in the supply chain hierarchy. They import intermediate inputs from China and export a substantial volume of intermediate goods to the U.S. rather than to China. Moreover, GSC trade is diversifying the countries’ exports and increasing their industrial capacity, positioning African countries to attract companies moving out of China, whether because of high production costs, supply chain disruptions, U.S. tariffs, or geopolitical tension...

The One-China Policy: Adapting to Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

Tue, 28 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Tensions are growing in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese warplanes have violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in record numbers, prompting fears of an invasion. 2021 was the first year in which a potential crisis over Taiwan rose to the level of a “Tier 1 risk” in the Council on Foreign Relations’ Preventive Priorities Survey, which is an annual survey of American foreign policy experts. The United States faces a decision about what it can do to help prevent crossstrait tensions from escalating into war. A vital question is whether, and how much, the United States should change its “One-China policy.” Beginning with the Trump administration and continuing with the Biden administration, the United States has bolstered its support for Taiwan and become more assertive in resisting Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the self-governing democracy. Although U.S. officials stress that the United States continues to adhere to the One-China policy, there is growing concern, as expressed...

A Crucial Link: Using Intellectual Property to Inform Global Supply Chain Policy

Tue, 28 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with trade tensions and technological competition between the United States and China, have severely disrupted global supply chains. As businesses and policymakers grapple with “building back better” in a tense trade environment, they face the dilemma of balancing the traditional benefits of global production with the security demands of new geopolitical realities. This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, highlights the productive role that intellectual property (IP) can play in navigating supply chain disruptions resulting from great power competition in a post-pandemic world. Rather than reinforcing the vicious cycle of techno-nationalist confrontation, it is possible for businesses and policymakers to promote virtuous cycles of competition with a more robust focus on intellectual property. Specifically, businesses and policymakers can look to IP licensing and allocation of rights to play a key role in tariff mitigation strategies...

Why the U.S. Should Prioritize Security in Its 5G Roll Out

Tue, 28 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

5G technology promises to transform practically every sphere of life, from smartphones and self-driving cars, to remote surgery and virtual reality. Policies related to the rollout of 5G in the United States have tended to focus on mitigating security risks, but does protecting security come at the cost of expanding U.S. global influence—or does it simply cost too much? This policy brief by IGCC postdoctoral research associate James Lee analyzes the three main criteria for deciding what a “good” 5G policy should look like—security, global influence, and efficiency— and recommends that the United States’ 5G strategy prioritize security first, influence second, and efficiency third.

Why Summit Optics May Help De-escalate Public Appetite for Conflict

Tue, 28 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

As competition between democracies and autocratic adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China intensifies, democratic publics may increasingly pressure their politicians to take a more confrontational stance. The implications are dangerous. Public pressure for confrontation during the Cold War caused numerous foreign policy fiascos. Public pressure also at times undermined the broad political unity necessary for concluding diplomatic agreements— even between democratic allies. How then, as the world enters a new era of great power competition, can public pressure and anger be defused and foreign policy put on a more rational footing? This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, argues that bilateral summits with autocratic leaders may have a key role to play in shifting the public’s collective emotional ethos. It analyzes results from a large-scale survey experiment, designed around the historic 2018 Singapore Summit, which represented the first-ever...

U.S. Security Ties With Korea and Japan: Getting Beyond Deterrence

Fri, 24 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Japan and Korea—the United States’ two key allies in Northeast Asia—are both advanced industrial democracies facing similar constraints from a rising China and a nuclear North Korea. One would think that trilateral cooperation would be a cinch. Yet Japan and Korea have been at each other’s throats over simmering historical issues and differing approaches to China. Forging a trilateral alliance is highly unlikely. But strengthening cooperation is possible by focusing less on the military components of the alliance—i.e., providing extended deterrence—and more on new issues such as 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), and infrastructure, which can strengthen collective capabilities and make cooperation more appealing.

Beyond New Start: The Future of Arms Control

Fri, 24 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In February 2021, the Biden administration announced that it would exercise Article XIV of the New START Treaty—extending the last remaining bilateral arms control agreement between the United States and Russia for five years. The announcement came against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving arms control landscape. The collapse of the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) Treaty and the U.S. withdrawal from the Open SkiesTreaty have led many to suggest that the existing arms control regime might be close to its end. Complicating matters arecgrowing calls for emerging military technologies like cyber andcartificial intelligence to be regulated by arms control agreements.

These developments beg several questions for both policymakers and academics: Why does arms control matter today? What are the near-term challenges to the existing arms control regime? And what are the possible paths forward for arms control?

North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Programs

Mon, 20 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The international community has consistently underestimated North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities. How has an economically impoverished, technologically backward, and internationally isolated state been able to establish robust and increasingly competent nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs? Has the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) achieved this on its own, as it proudly claims? Or has it been predominantly reliant on foreign sources and if so, to whom and in what ways? This brief synthesizes what we know about the development of North Korean nuclear and missile capabilities, which together makes up the country’s strategic weapons complex. These industries have made rapid and concerted progress up the global innovation ladder over the past few decades. Indeed, this highly secretive apparatus is probably the most innovative, dynamic, technologically advanced, and privileged segment of the North Korean economy. The barriers to dismantling North Korea’s...

Defense Transparency Index 2019

Mon, 20 May 2024 00:00:00 +0000

In an increasingly volatile world, mutual trust and confidence among defense establishments is critical. Growing arms competition and security anxiety in Northeast Asia, one of the most strategically important but politically volatile regions of the world, is increasing the demand for defense information, not only from governments and militaries but also from businesses, the media, and concerned citizens.

The Defense Transparency Index (DTI), a project of the University of California’s Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ranks six countries on their efforts to promote transparency in defense and national security. Included in the Index are the People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), and the Republic of Korea, along with the external major powers most involved in the region—the United States and Russia.

What constitutes “defense transparency” is contested, and there is a lack of agreed-upon definitions and standardized...

Policy Brief 09: Integrating Asia

Mon, 10 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Policy Brief 09: Integrating Asia

Policy Brief 11-1: Smoothing the Waters: The Jordan Rift

Thu, 6 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Water allocation from the Jordan River and three major regional aquifers reamains a major obstacle in the path of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Middle East stability depends on effective regional water management.

Policy Brief 01: Environmental Security

Thu, 6 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The United States must provide development assistance to break the chain of increased population, deforestation, and land degradation leading to social unrest and armed conflict—or face future Haitis and Somalias.

Policy Brief 14: Good Fences Make Good Neighbors

Thu, 6 Aug 2015 00:00:00 +0000

A ceasefire in the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is only the beginning of the process of conflictresolution that must occur for peaceto take hold. The possibility ofthe conflict erupting into violenceagain is high unless serious internaland international effort is put into thedemarcation of the border and theacceptance of that demarcated borderas fair.The United States need to build strong relations with Ethiopia as well as encourage peace and economic development.

2013-14 IGCC White Paper on Defense Transparency in Northeast Asia

Fri, 15 May 2015 00:00:00 +0000

2013-14 IGCC White Paper on Defense Transparency in Northeast Asia

A Dismal Show Amid Pockets of Excellence: The State of Defense Innovation in India

Mon, 6 Apr 2015 00:00:00 +0000

A Dismal Show Amid Pockets of Excellence: The State of Defense Innovation in India

The State of Defense Innovation in the United States: How to Cope in an Age of Austerity

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The State of Defense Innovation in the United States: How to Cope in an Age of Austerity

Defense Innovation in China: History, Lessons, and Trends

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Defense Innovation in China: History, Lessons, and Trends

The State of U.S. Defense Innovation

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The State of U.S. Defense Innovation

The Current State of Defense Innovation in China and Future Prospects

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The Current State of Defense Innovation in China and Future Prospects

The State of Defense Innovation in India: Can It Catch Up with Global Leaders?

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The State of Defense Innovation in India: Can It Catch Up with Global Leaders?

The State of Defense Innovation in Russia: Prospects for Revival?

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

The State of Defense Innovation in Russia: Prospects for Revival?

Defense Innovation in Russia: The Current State and Prospects for Revival

Tue, 10 Mar 2015 00:00:00 +0000

Defense Innovation in Russia: The Current State and Prospects for Revival

2012 IGCC White Paper on Northeast Asia Defense Transparency, Summary Version

Wed, 1 Oct 2014 00:00:00 +0000

This white paper is part of a larger project by the University of California Institute on Global Con-flict and Cooperation (IGCC) to measure the level of defense transparency in Northeast Asia. The paper covers Japan, People’s Republic of China (PRC), Republic of Korea (ROK), United States, and Russia in eight functional areas: 1) dis-closures in defense white papers; 2) information available on official defense websites; 3) reporting to the United Nations; 4) openness of defense budgets; 5) legislative oversight; 6) robustness of press independence; 7) reporting of international military activity; and 8) disclosure on cyber activi-ties

The Republic of Korea’s Perspective on Defense Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

The Republic of Korea has greatly enhanced defense transparency both domestically and internationally since the end of the 1990s, using a mix of strategies. However, the efforts of the current administration to enhance defense transparency at the international level do not match efforts at home. Some experts believe that the ROK is already on par with other nations and that its neighbors should reciprocate by shedding more light on their own defense policies and practices.

Japan’s Approaches to DefenseTransparency: Perspectivesfrom the Japanese and Chinese Defense Establishments

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

Contemporary Japanese approaches to defense transparency are informed by history, relations with external states, the domestic political configuration of institutions, and state–society interactions. Analysts from the Japanese defense establishment agree that greater levels of transparency are inherently good, while their counterparts from China note the importance of political and diplomatic relations in increasing the credibility of defense transparency efforts. There is a consensus that expectations of defense transparency should be realistic, and the emphasis should be on bilateral efforts to promote defense transparency.

Harnessing the European Experience in Defense Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

Europe has pioneered and championed the cause of defense transparency, owing to the continent’s turbulent history and a desire to avoid these mistakes again. Defense transparency has improved in Europe as a result of the roles played by private industry and media, as well as the consequences of conflict or collaboration between the governments on the continent. The conditions that have encouraged greater transparency in Europe are not entirely reflected in Asia, but steps are being taken to gradually improve defense transparency in the region.

Japan’s Defense White Paper as a Tool for Promoting Defense Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

This policy brief explains how Japan produces its annual defense white paper and how this publication and other defense reports promote transparency on Japan’s national defense. I outline the process of putting together the white paper and then suggest ways in which the process and the structure could be applied by other nations seeking to improve their defense transparency.

Japan’s National Defense Planning for the New Security Environment: The 2010 National Defense Program Guidelines

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

The National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) is the primary document of Japan’s defense policy, setting both guidelines for defense force planning and outlining the basic principles and policies of Japan’s national security strategy. The most recent NDPG, completed in 2010, introduces several new concepts such as “dynamic deterrrence” and based on recognition of a new security environment in the region. This brief highlights the new concepts and indicates two areas that must be addressed soon in order to make the NDPG fully executable.

Defense Transparency: Seeking a Definition for a Paradoxical Concept

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

Most people believe that transparency improves governance, by improving trust in relations between governments and their people as well as with other governments. The devil, as always, is in the details. The paradox of transparency is that the metaphor conveys unproblematic revelation of true information, yet in practice the provision of believable, relevant information takes a lot of institutional and political work to achieve. Transparency in international security is more problematic because relationships between the information, its referent, and context of interpretation can be especially complex considering the multiple channels of information competing for attention and authority. This brief proposes a definition of “defense transparency” that takes these complexities into account, drawing on a pragmatic notion of communication between particular information sources, messages, and receivers, the normative goal of which is to enhance collective security.

A Civilian Perspective on DefenseTransparency in the Republic of Korea: The More, the Better?

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

In a change from the past, the government of the Republic of Korea now emphasizes communication with domestic as well as external audiences. However, practices during past military authoritarian regimes have left a lasting, negative impression on the public. As a result, the government still suffers from a credibility gap, making it difficult to gain support at home for its defense policies. The government may need to rethink the methods and content of its communications on defense in the face of continued demands for more detailed and timely information.

The Role of the Japanese Diet in Promoting Defense Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

While it is clear that Japan’s legislative body, the Diet, is empowered in budgeting and oversight mechanisms, there is no consensus on whether the Diet wields actual power in influencing defense policy and whether the Diet’s role in defense policy approaches that of other democratic legislative systems. In this policy brief, we first outline the substantial budgetary and oversight responsibilities carried out by the Diet’s ruling coalition. Second, we suggest a framework to strengthen the role of the Diet in improving defense transparency. In particular, we look at the coalitional nature of Japanese party politics, changing ideologies in the midst of constant party renaming and reorganization, and the lack of party defense policy platforms. We also examine the relationship of Diet members to two important actors in Japanese politics: 1) the media; and 2) the ruling coalition; in particular, the Diet’s relationship to the Prime Minister.

Chinese Perspectives on Japan’s Defense Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

In China, discussions of defense transparency usually revolve around China’s defense affairs and those of its counterparts, with little comment on the actions of other countries. This brief touches upon the basic evolution of Japan’s defense transparency and its current status, and analyzes three differing Chinese perspectives on Japan’s defense transparency.

Measuring Transparency in Military Expenditure: The Case of China

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

This policy brief discusses the key dimensions of military expenditure transparency and assesses them in relation to China. While spending transparency relates most obviously to the availability, reliability, detail, and comprehensiveness of information, it cannot be completely separated from broader defense policy formation issues. China has a robust framework for developing, implementing, and monitoring defense policy, budgeting, and expenditure, and producing readily-accessible budget and expenditure data in English and Chinese; however, these processes are largely carried out behind closed doors.

Japanese Bureaucratic Transparency

Fri, 20 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000

This brief examines the issue of transparency during and after the period of political dominance by the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP) which ruled with only a brief nine-month interruption from 1955–2009. It highlights two related but analytically separate dimensions of governmental transparency—transparency in decision-making processes and transparency in official policies. The first concentrates on the public visibility of how agencies decide on matters under their jurisdiction; the second focuses on how visible actual government policies are to those most affected by them and to the general citizenry. I argue that Japanese agencies have been far more open on policy content than on the processes by which those decisions were reached. In addition, this brief examines recent changes designed to foster greater transparency in both process and policy, including a Freedom of Information Act, e-government provisions, enhanced roles for parliamentary inquiry, a greater role...

The East Asian Political Economy: Stylized Facts and Security Debates

Mon, 2 Dec 2013 00:00:00 +0000

This policy brief links debates about the economic development of the Asia-Pacific to possible security implications. The brief makes four points. Past periods of high growth in the region have inevitably slowed, and China’s will too. The main question is whether thishappens gradually or as a result of crisis. Second, the global imbalances associated with export-oriented strategies and reserve accumulation have created strong dependence on the U.S. market. Third, the growth of intra-regional trade does not necessarily indicate a “decoupling” of the region. Increased Chinese leverage within the region may be exaggerated because of the continued role of international production networks in which Japanese, American, and European firms continue to play an important role. Finally, regional institutions are evolving and contributing to ongoing liberalization at the margin. But the institutional architecture remains fragmented and hamstrung by the tremendous diversity of the region’s...

Policy Brief 08-1: Democratizing Foreign Policy (Part I of IV): A Little Help from our Friends