Recent cjpp items

You Have to Create the Right Pipeline: Why California Has Never Elected a Woman Governor

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

California has produced some of the most important women leaders in American politics in recent decades. Yet California remains one of 17 states where a woman has not served as governor. This isn’t for lack of trying. Since 1978, 16 women have appeared on primary ballots and three have been party nominees. Why have so many women run, and yet none have won? Political science research, our own data gathering, as well as journalistic accounts, provide a few possible insights.

Representatives in Robes? How California Respondents think of Judicial Representation

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Many have identified the tension between conceptualizing judges as legal versus political actors. One dimension of this tension is the extent to which we should or do think of judges as political representatives, both broadly and in ways that are either similar to or distinct from elected political representatives. In this project, we address the role of judges as representatives and then assess whether and to what extent California residents think of judges as representatives. Using public opinion data of California residents from the CalSpeaks survey fielded in the spring of 2021, we find that about a third of respondents do consider judges representatives in some way. While we find no gender differences in perceptions of judicial representation and very limited racial differences, there are strong age differences: younger respondents were significantly more likely to indicate that judges are representatives in some way compared to older respondents. This project informs...

COVID-19 Relief Measures had Few Durable Post-Pandemic Effects on Renters

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The COVID-19 pandemic was responsible for an unprecedented crisis in the rental housing market, as families faced eviction as a consequence of pandemic lockdowns and resulting economic recession. In response, for the first time ever in US history, eviction moratoria were introduced to protect renters from being evicted for nonpayment; these were accompanied by several stimulus measures to support renters and the overall economy. This study asks whether these pandemic-era policies had any lingering effects after they had ceased to be implemented, by examining whether renters’ housing vulnerability at the state level saw any improvement in the post-pandemic years of 2022-23. For comparison, the study also evaluates the effects of variables reflecting economic fundamentals and renters’ housing burden. The findings suggest that the included policies had little effect on renters’ post-pandemic housing precarity.

Lilliputians at the Gate: Small Individual Campaign Donations and Political Polarization in Western State Legislatures

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Scholars seek to understand campaign donor behavior and its effects on candidates. Researchers generally agree that individual donors are more ideologically extreme than most organizational donors but disagree as to whether small individual donors (those giving less than $200 per cycle) are especially correlated to extremist candidates. We study the relationship between small individual donors and legislators’ NPAT and CFscores for the California, Washington, and Oregon legislatures between 2016 and 2022. We find both that individual donors correlate to more partisan legislators in general and that the correlation between donors and politically polarized legislators is even greater for small individual donors than for large individual donors in most cases.

Navigating the Aftermath of the Maui Wildfires: Hawai‘i’s FY 2025 Budget

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Hawai‘i’s FY 2025 budget reflected the state’s efforts to balance recovery from the August 2023 Maui wildfires with ongoing challenges such as housing affordability, economic diversification, and climate resilience. The biennial budget initially authorized $44 billion in spending for FY 2024 and FY 2025, but it was revised to include approximately $600 million for wildfire recovery and over $500 million in hazard pay for public employees. Governor Josh Green’s administration prioritized housing development, tax cuts, and long-term recovery efforts while addressing the immediate demands of the devastating wildfires. The budget process highlighted the state’s reliance on tourism for revenue, raising serious concerns about the long-term sustainability of Hawai‘i’s primary industry. Lawmakers successfully maintained core services and passed historic tax cuts, but some remain concerned that the state’s high levels of spending are unsustainable given recent economic forecasts. This...

Into the Unknown: The 2024 Washington State Legislative Session & Beyond

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In this paper, we discuss the political and budgetary landscape of Washington State. With consistent Democratic leadership—in the governor’s mansion and with respect to legislative priorities—the state has been able to advance a more liberal policy agenda than states without Democratic majorities. In this session, the legislature voted to invest in the development of affordable housing, behavioral health initiatives, and policies designed to curb climate change. However, ballot initiatives in November might serve as a significant impediment to these policy pursuits. Voters will decide whether to keep the cap-and-trade climate policy, the capital gains tax, and the long-term care program for the state. The cap-and-trade policy, as well as the capital gains tax, serves as a means of revenue generation and the elimination of these resources would upend the budget in important ways moving forward.

Should Newsom Stay or Should He LAO? California’s 2024-2025 Budget

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The FY 2024-25 budgeting cycle in California was far less chaotic than the previous year, when a record $100 billion budget surplus morphed into a widening deficit. This time, Democratic Gavin Newsom and the Democratic controlled legislature had to tackle that mounting deficit as the state’s economy stalled, specifically among the wealthiest Californians, who fund a large portion of the state’s government. Neither Newsom nor the two new Democratic legislative leaders had experienced a budget deficit in office, which made coordination additionally tricky. The state is in much better shape than previous deficits, however, with a large reserve and strong budget resilience among its leaders. One problem- the governor increasingly reports different budget numbers than the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst Office (LAO), which assesses the administration’s budget for the legislature.

Oregon’s 2024 Legislative Session and Budget: From Incivility to Civility

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The 2024 Oregon legislative session, spanning a concise 35-day period, marked a return to bipartisan collaboration resulting in significant policy advancements. Major reforms enacted include the implementation of campaign finance limits, modifications to drug decriminalization policies, and the introduction of a substantial housing initiative by Governor Tina Kotek. These actions stand in contrast to the previous year's divisive Republican walkout, which had halted legislative proceedings in protest against proposed bills on gun control, education, and climate change. This walkout led to a new ballot measure that penalized unexcused absences among legislators, threatening the ability of boycotting members to run for re-election. Despite the prior tensions, the 2024 session was distinguished by cooperation, as evidenced by both parties acknowledging its historic success in achieving policy goals. The budget passed on June 25, 2023, outlined a total of $121.264 billion for the...

THE LONG SHADOW OF THE TAXPAYER’S BILL OF RIGHTS: COLORADO’S 2024–2025 BUDGET AND ECONOMY

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In one of the most polarized legislatures in the United States, partisan and ideological divisions among Colorado lawmakers often overlap with differences in identity and experience. Although the chasm between Democrats and Republicans on salient social and economic issues is wide, bipartisan policymaking still occurs. Democratic successes in 2022 extended their streak to four consecutive election cycles of remaining even or gaining seats in both the Colorado House and Senate. Unified government with expanded majorities has allowed Democrats to advance their agenda through the state budget with relative ease, and seldom used parliamentary tactics helped bring about liberal policy change in contentious issue areas including gun control. In budgetary politics, the fiscal constraints of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR) currently do more to impede the progressive agenda than dwindling opposition votes from minority party Republicans. Statewide ballot measures have also driven...

Purple Rain: Temperamental Politics and Budgets in Arizona

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Arizona’s evolving political landscape has become a key factor in its fiscal outlook. Once a solid Republican stronghold, the state has shifted to swing status, as seen in President Joe Biden's narrow 0.3% margin win in the 2020 election and a closely divided state legislature. Strong economic growth in prior years led to FY23 General Fund revenues being revised upwards from $15.9 billion to $17.9 billion. Despite this, declining tax revenues and increased spending, particularly on a universal school voucher program, created a projected $1.71 billion deficit for FY25. The state's Republican-led legislature implemented a 2.5% flat income tax and expanded school vouchers, significantly impacting revenue. To address the deficit, the FY25 budget, finalized at $16.8 billion, included cuts to many programs, most notably a $430 million reduction in the Arizona Water Infrastructure and Financing Authority. The political status quo remained consistent after the 2024 election, where...

The 2023 Nevada Budget: Record Surpluses, Cautious Optimism, and Bipartisan Support for K-12 Education and State Employees

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In June of 2023, the Nevada Legislature passed the state’s 2023-2025 budget. Buoyed by continued increases in the state’s share of the sales taxes and revenue tied to gaming, entertainment, and tourism as well as business activity, the $10.9 billion general fund budget was the largest in Nevada’s history. After four years of unified Democratic control of state government, the 2023 session was the first budget passed under divided government since 2017. While partisan and interbranch tensions were ever present as evidenced by a record 75 vetoed bills, Nevada’s Republican governor and Democratic-controlled legislature supported substantial investments in K-12 education and state employees. Enthusiasm for long-term spending obligations, however, was tempered by the fact that the general fund budget’s two largest revenue drivers—sales and gaming taxes—fluctuate with macroeconomic conditions. The continued reliance on these revenue sources perpetuates Nevada’s history of booms and...

Editor's Introduction, Winter 2025

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Editor's Introduction, Winter 2025

How Are Minority Staffers Utilized? Evidence from the California State Assembly

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Legislative staffers are among legislators’ most valuable assets and their appointment by legislators is strategic. Past research has focused on how legislative staffer appointments help legislators meet policy or constituency service goals. In this article I advance the literature by theorizing how minority staffers are utilized. I hypothesize, and show using novel data from the California State Assembly, that state legislators disproportionally place Hispanic and Asian American Pacific Islander staffers in constituency service positions. This may be done as an effort to provide a form of surrogate descriptive representation. Concerningly, because minority staffers are more likely to be placed in constituency service positions, minority staffers are less likely to be placed in policy orientated positions where they might have the most influence over substantive policymaking. This leads to a situation where minority staffers are placed in visible constituency service appointments...

Two Factions Walk into a Budget Session

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The 67th Wyoming Legislature’s 20-day budget session was convened Thursday, February 8, 2024, for the beginning of its work in Cheyenne. This year, outside of its typical budget work, over 360 bills were brought forward by both legislative committees and individual legislators. These bills ranged from property tax relief to health care. In the end, on Friday March 8th, the final biennial General Fund budget was close to $3.8 billion – up approximately $100 million from the previous biennium. Deep ideological divides within the state’s dominant Republican Party drove much debate and show no signs of abating before next year’s general session.

New Mexico 2024: Swinging the Compass. Recalibrating Fiscal Policy to Plan for a Slower Economy

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

In late February 2024, the New Mexico State Legislature closed the books on a relatively uneventful session. After successive years of record revenues and double-digit budget expansion, the legislature modestly reigned in spending increases to less than 7%. Legislators continued their recent trend of stashing some of the state’s massive surplus in newly created endowment funds, hoping to insulate the state from future economic downturns. The legislative action reflects a growing consensus that boom and bust budgeting does not provide for a stable, long-term financial future. Legislators still managed to approve a $10 billion dollar plus budget, set aside reserves upwards of 30%, and spend almost $1.4 billion in capital projects big and small. Though the 30-day session is short, lawmakers still found time to deal with some social issues (public safety, health care, education, and the environment) and some issues personal to the legislature. Though only 72 pieces of legislation...

On a Roll, or Is It a Slide? Alaska’s Budgeting Process in 2024

Thu, 9 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

As in 2023, Alaska’s politics seem to be benefitting from a more moderate and collegial policymaking environment and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. In part, this seems due to Alaska’s adoption of a new election system which in 2022 generated a more moderate set of legislative coalitions than the previous several election cycles. These moderate coalitions may be short-lived, however, as an effort to repeal the new election system is underway. And even with our relatively moderate State House and State Senate coalitions, headwinds and controversies remain, especially issues around public education funding.

No Space in Paradise: Hawai‘i’s FY 2024 Budget and the Cost-of-Living Crisis

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The State of Hawai‘i’s $37.2 billion biennium operating budget for FY 2024 and FY 2025 provided substantial tax relief for vulnerable residents, and authorized new spending to improve access to affordable housing and health care. This article explores the policy decisions and conflicts among legislators and the newly elected Governor during the budget approval process. Although Governor Josh Green and the Democratic leadership agreed on the state’s most pressing policy priorities, the Legislature rejected Green’s proposal for broad middle-class tax relief in favor of more targeted benefits for low-income families. There were also several major disputes among legislators during the budget approval process, including a fight over the level of education spending, and the controversial creation of a $200 million discretionary fund for the Governor’s use. Beyond the budget, the paper explores several ongoing challenges, including Hawai‘i’s economic dependence on tourism, population...

Honey, I Shrunk the Surplus: California’s 2023-2024 Budget

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The 2023 budgeting cycle in California was much different from the previous year. California’s finances, always topsy-turvy, faced a dramatic reversal of fortune as surplus turned to deficit. Nonetheless, the state was able to weather the storm and avoid deep spending cuts, thanks to a combination of good economic times in years past and politically expedient decisions by the Governor and Legislature. However, delayed tax collections and projections for structural deficits, even absent a recession, meant storm clouds were on the horizon as the year drew to a close. The tough decisions that were sidestepped in 2023 might have to be made in 2024.

If You Choose Not to Decide… Alaska’s Budgeting Process in 2023

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Alaska in 2023 is experiencing the first results of the new election system—the top-four all-party primary and Ranked Choice Voting. So far, that system seems to be generating results consistent with what advocates expected; a more moderate and collegial policy-making environment, and possibly even more sensible budgetary policy. This, coupled with relatively strong (though declining) oil prices, and abundant sovereign wealth led to a relatively low-drama, low-conflict budgeting process in spring 2023, as well as relatively moderate budgeting outcomes.

Live from Washington: Division, Drugs, and a Dinosaur

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The 2022 legislative session in Washington State saw legislators returning to in-person deliberations after the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite being physically close, the partisan and ideological differences were as large as ever. The ever-expanding Democratic majority had unprecedented revenue to spend, while Republicans argued for more fiscal responsibility. Given their dominant position in both legislative chambers, Democrats were able to make significant investments in addressing homelessness, mental health, and education.

New Mexico 2023: Riding the Wave of Oil and Gas

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The 2023 legislative session was a long and productive one in New Mexico. The annual session required legislators to pass a budget while juggling the social and cultural issues of the day. On the budget front, lawmakers were fortunate to witness record breaking revenues as oil and gas production and receipts soared. Simultaneously, tax collections increased and the state economy finally completed its pandemic recovery. Record surpluses and rosy forecasts meant that lawmakers could significantly expand the state budget (over 13%) and still plot how to secure the state’s financial future. Education funding and capital outlay projects were the clear winners. On the social front, bills related to guns, crimes, abortion, and elections all shared the limelight with appropriations requests. At the end of the day, the 2023 legislature passed its largest ever annual budget, while also passing tax rebates and expanded tax credits. Lawmakers took steps towards stabilizing the long term...

Ads and Editorials: How Pretreatment Reduces the Persuasiveness of Interest Group Advertisements

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Advertising studies commonly examine the effects of one-sided treatments. However, political communication campaigns are competitive environments where voters are likely to hear more than one perspective. Because of this dynamic, the persuasive effects of single-sided ads may be less likely to hold in a competitive environment. When respondents are exposed to arguments from both sides of a ballot proposition issue, can the disclosure of a credible group help an advertisement overcome prior opinions? I address this question using a randomized experiment that includes ballot proposition campaign ads. In the experiments, I manipulate the pretreatment environment by exposing some respondents to a newspaper editorial in order to provide them with prior opinions that might cause them to resist subsequent advertisements. I also vary the presence or absence of campaign finance disclosure within the advertisements. In all cases, the presence of a credible editorial is associated with...

Editor's Introduction

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

Editor's Introduction

Montana’s Hard Right Turn Continues

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

This paper analyzes the politics and early outcomes of the 2023 68^th legislative session that set budgetary and other policy for the 2025 biennium. Montana, whose political complexation was purple 2004-2020 moved unambiguously red in the elections of November 2020. This trend continued in the 2022 elections in which the GOP gained a legislative supermajority, with significant state fiscal implications for the most recent state budget. The first half of the paper focuses on spending and tax bills. The second half focuses on what attracted the most attention in Montana’s media and citizenry- the culture wars. Budgetary decisions often interacted with culture war issues and the paper makes note of this. The battle continues in the courts after a major climate change case challenged the state’s way of doing business.

Oregon 2023: Entering the Post-COVID World

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

The political and budget landscape of Oregon once again can be characterized by incivility and polarization as exemplified by the 6-week walkout of Senate Republicans denying the chamber a quorum to conduct business including the 2023-25 budget. Eventually the Republicans returned, and a budget was passed after the Democrats made concessions on abortion, gender affirming care, and gun bills. The 2023 economic forecast was surprisingly positive given the Federal Reserve’s reaction to persistent inflation, the governor and legislature chose three very difficult issues as their priorities: (1) homelessness and housing affordability, (2) mental health and addiction services, and (3) improved early literacy and K-12 education outcomes. There have been major state leadership changes in 2022 and 2023, although the shifts featured familiar faces in new positions more than any deep change. As the 2022 elections demonstrated, the rural-urban split festers. Meanwhile, the federal spigot...

“Disciplined Savings and Stewardship”

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 00:00:00 +0000

What to do with a windfall? That question loomed large in Wyoming’s 2023 general legislative session, after a 2022 budget session focused on revenue shortfalls and budget reductions. As such, Wyoming’s rich history of “boom-and-bust” economics continues, albeit with increasing skepticism among the state’s elected officials. The 2023 legislative session saw notable new spending in areas such as property tax relief and public employee wages but also produced significant financial investment in many of Wyoming’s “rainy day” funds.

The Growing Presence of Faith-Based Hospitals, Supplemental Tables

Tue, 14 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

These are supplemental tables for the article by Hebner et al.

Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting

Sun, 5 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests.

In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump.

The...

Examining Child Deprivation Across California and How It Could Be Addressed with Early Childhood Education

Sun, 5 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Socioeconomic deprivation can create adverse conditions with direct impacts on the development of children. The Early Childhood Deprivation Index (ECDI) shows that there are significant differences in the extent of deprivation of young children (aged 0 to 5 years) among the counties in California. Our research shows that the cost of childcare forms a significant proportion of family income among low- and middle-income families. It indicates that families can pay for a high proportion of such costs if they could access the available federal and state government entitlements. A universal high-quality early childhood education system brings about an efficient way of providing the childcare without the unnecessary cost of employing a means-tested entitlement mechanism. However, even with universal early childhood education, families need support to be able to take advantage of the program, since pre-schooling will be on a voluntary basis. It is therefore important that in...

Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?

Sun, 5 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

In November 2020, Alaska introduced a new electoral system, combining a “top four” all-party primary with ranked choice voting (RCV) general elections. Supporters of this reform claimed it would reduce the partisan polarization and minority victories generated by closed primaries and plurality elections. But critics suggest that it could make polarization worse by weakening political parties—an important check on political extremism. These are high-stakes issues that go well beyond Alaska, given the problem of political polarization and the search for institutional reforms in America today. Placing the Alaskan reforms in this broader national context, this paper presents an initial assessment of Alaska’s new system at the 2022 primary and mid-term elections. We find the reform was both consequential and largely beneficial, promoting greater choice for voters, more accommodative campaigning, and generally more moderate outcomes than likely under the old rules.

The Growing Presence of Faith-Based Hospitals in California Restricts Access to Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare

Sun, 5 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Sexual and reproductive healthcare restrictions imposed by faith-based hospitals prevent women, sexual minorities, and gender minorities from accessing the full range of comprehensive healthcare. The share of faith-based hospitals in California has increased rapidly in recent years, but no analysis has been completed to understand their distribution and rate of growth. In this paper, we calculate the percentage of religiously affiliated acute, short-term hospital beds per California county. We find that faith-based hospitals have a majority market share in 17 out of 58 California counties. Furthermore, while the percentage of faith-based hospitals in these counties has remained relatively stable from 2000-2010, this proportion has increased tenfold in the past decade. Our data suggest that the expansion of faith-based healthcare systems in California presents a significant barrier to sexual and reproductive healthcare access.

Editor's Introduction

Sun, 5 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000

Editor's Introduction

Muddling Through: Alaska’s Budget Process in 2021