http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification 720 https://escholarship.org/uc/ciee_climatechange/rss Recent eScholarship items from Climate Change Sat, 16 May 2026 21:43:04 +0000 https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2m8075hj <p>The EcoBlock Water Improvement project leverages the existing California Energy Commission-funded Oakland EcoBlock project (https://ecoblock.berkeley.edu/). Led by UC Berkeley, EcoBlock assessed the issues (social, legal, financial, technical) associated with, and the potential of neighborhood-scale retrofitting to increase resilience and rapidly, equitably, and affordably reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The pilot involves renovation of an urban block with energy efficiency, electrification, and shared ownership of rooftop solar. Since the block abuts Sausal Creek, this EPA-funded project adds stormwater mitigation.</p><p>The EPA program’s goal is to protect and restore waterbodies, such as Sausal Creek, which flows into the San Francisco Bay. In cooperation with the City of Oakland, this water resilience element to the Oakland EcoBlock project&nbsp;provided a pilot case of&nbsp;reducing flow and contaminants entering Sausal Creek, and thus the Bay.</p><p>The objective of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2m8075hj Fri, 30 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Boman, Craig Chung, Eunice Peffer, Therese E Robertson, Sandy https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7v90x8nw <p>This report describes the design development process and recommendations of a Community-Scale Zero Net Energy Master Plan for a residential block in Oakland, the Oakland EcoBlock. The recommended master plan includes an integrated system of energy efficiency retrofits, a direct current solar/storage/electric vehicle microgrid, alternating/direct current houses, and water efficiency retrofits with rainwater capture. The recommended master plan is projected to be close to zero-net energy (95 percent) for homes, reduce carbon emissions by 65 percent at the block scale (including transportation), and reduce water use 60–70 percent.</p><p>The integrated system of energy efficiency and a direct current solar/storage/electric vehicle (EV) charging microgrid is the first of its kind at the residential block scale. This breakthrough because the deep energy efficiency retrofit savings free up enough capacity in the solar supply and storage to enable residents to switch from natural gas... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7v90x8nw Tue, 8 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Barr, Zach Bourassa, Norm Bowie, John Brown, Rich DeCuir, Nora Diamond, H. Jordan Dryden, Amy Elkind, Ethan Fraker, Harrison Fu, Wenjie Guy, Ethan Hamilton, Daniel Lamm, Ted Nicholson, Maika Rainer, Leo Robertson, Sandy Thomson, Christine Scott Tome, Emma Traber, Andréa https://escholarship.org/uc/item/64r2j04w <p>This report describes the design development process and recommendations of a Community-Scale Zero Net Energy Master Plan for a residential block in Oakland, the Oakland EcoBlock. The recommended master plan includes an integrated system of energy efficiency retrofits, a direct current solar/storage/electric vehicle microgrid, alternating/direct current houses, and water efficiency retrofits with rainwater capture. The recommended master plan is projected to be close to zero-net energy (95 percent) for homes, reduce carbon emissions by 65 percent at the block scale (including transportation), and reduce water use 60–70 percent.</p><p>The integrated system of energy efficiency and a direct current solar/storage/electric vehicle (EV) charging microgrid is the first of its kind at the residential block scale. This breakthrough because the deep energy efficiency retrofit savings free up enough capacity in the solar supply and storage to enable residents to switch from natural gas... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/64r2j04w Tue, 8 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Barr, Zach Bourassa, Norm Bowie, John Brown, Rich DeCuir, Nora Diamond, H. Jordan Dryden, Amy Elkind, Ethan Fraker, Harrison Fu, Wenjie Guy, Ethan Hamilton, Daniel Lamm, Ted Nicholson, Maika Rainer, Leo Robertson, Sandy Thomson, Christine Scott Tome, Emma Traber, Andréa https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0rt260sh The goal of the EcoBlock research project is to explore strategies for resilience and the rapid, equitable, and affordable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through urban block-scale retrofitting. This involves identifying and managing social, legal, financial, and technological challenges. We will develop a prototype EcoBlock in order to demonstrate the technical feasibility of renovating a residential block with efficiency, electrification, and shared ownership of a community solar microgrid. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0rt260sh Wed, 2 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000 Brown, Rich Nahas, Tony Wolfson, Greg https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7fk7k04f In <em>What If We Get It Right?</em>, marine biologist Ayana Elizabeth Johnson outlines an optimistic, actionable approach to addressing climate change, highlighting the importance of community, cultural shifts, and systemic change. The book integrates interviews and essays from a diverse group of experts, reinforcing the idea that meaningful change is possible if we harness our individual strengths and collaborate across disciplines. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7fk7k04f Fri, 22 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam R https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1ch8200w Indonesia, renowned as the most mangrove-rich nation, has committed to extensive mangrove restoration policies, but the effects of these policies have yet to be systematically evaluated. Our study conducts a comprehensive network analysis to investigate the synergies between mangrove restoration policy and global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievements by exploring their interactions. This investigation follows the ‘product space’ method in economics and creates the ‘Mangrove-SDG space’ to assess each metric pair's co-occurrence and comparative advantages with validated stability. Our analysis unveils a tripartite structure, encompassing socio-economic and environmental clusters, each significantly contributing to global sustainability and a distinctive mangrove cluster tied to land attributes. At the Goal level, mangrove loss showcases robust synergies with SDGs 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and 13 (Climate Change), and mangrove metrics such as tropical... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1ch8200w Fri, 22 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Gong, Mimi Teller, Noah Golebie, Elizabeth J Aczel, Miriam Jiang, Zhimeng Zeghbroeck, Joris Van Liu, Jianguo https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6bx133h8 <p>How can cities efficiently and affordably undergo effective and dramatic decarbonization of buildings and vehicles? Can these strategies promote equity and scale across the urban environment worldwide? The EcoBlock in Oakland, California seeks to answer this urgent environmental, social, and technical question by designing, testing, and deploying community-scale energy and water systems. These innovative systems combine energy and water efficiency and electrification at the building scale with an electrical system that integrates rooftop solar, block-scale storage, electric vehicle (EV) charging, and a smart microgrid that optimizes supply and demand at the block-scale.</p><p>This paper presents the approach and strategies when moving from design to implementation deploying this novel prototype toward industrializing city-wide, residential microgrids that generate their own clean, renewable power for homes and EVs. Scaling retrofits requires coordination from evaluation, product... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6bx133h8 Tue, 9 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Dryden, Amy Peffer, Therese https://escholarship.org/uc/item/90s7p9hq Currently, less than 1% of Earth is too hot to support human life, but researchers estimate that by 2070 nearly 20% of the planet’s surface will be outside humanity’s comfort zone. The “bubble of unlivability” could include up to a third of the people on Earth, and existing inequalities will likely increase conflict. In the United States, vulnerable populations will be prone to disproportionate risk. On the Move, by journalist Abrahm Lustgarten, is a poignant and meticulously researched exploration of climate change and both its imminent and long-term effects on human migration in the US. Through analysis, personal narratives, and projected future scenarios, Lustgarten unveils the stark reality of a world on the brink of massive demographic shifts driven by an increasingly inhospitable climate. Lustgarten begins with a personal account of the moment he recognized the climate crisis as a reality that no region will escape. His usual view of the San Francisco skyline was replaced... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/90s7p9hq Wed, 3 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam R Mor Barak, Michàlle E https://escholarship.org/uc/item/10g305s9 This commentary suggests that undertaking citizen science research with young people has the potential to play a significant role in contributing to the IPPC and related UN research and policy processes around climate change. Further, citizen science engagement can educate and empower children and young people in and through research by involving wider communities and groups in data collection, communication, and engagement. A persuasive body of literature suggests that children and youth can be and ought to be included in citizen science projects and that young people ought to and can have a greater say in their environmental and climate lives and futures. There is acknowledgment that certain populations, including young people, have been excluded from participation in citizen science, and strategies need to be developed to be more inclusive. Moreover, through inclusion of youth, there are opportunities for intergeneration collaboration leading to potential solutions. Our commentary... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/10g305s9 Mon, 1 Apr 2024 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam Makuch, Karen E https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7z632897 Citizen Science for Conservation: Towards a Cleaner, Greener China https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7z632897 Mon, 1 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam R Cao, David Makuch, Karen https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4gj6c2qc Citizen Science for Conservation: Towards a Cleaner, Greener China https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4gj6c2qc Mon, 1 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam R https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0667b3wd A Comparison of Tree Growth in Two Sites near Schefferville, Quebec https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0667b3wd Mon, 1 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Aczel, Miriam R https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9c0618tq The climate of California is predicted to change significantly during the coming century. Whilea changing climate will impact the stateas a whole, some sectors may be impacted more than others. This is especially true of agriculture. Impacts may not only alter the types and locations of commodities produced, but also the factors influencing their production, such as resource availability and biotic and abiotic stresses. The nature and interrelatedness of these factors, and the response of agro-ecosystems, need to be explored to effectively mitigate and/or adapt to the effectsof climate change in a sustainable manner. To consider the challenges facing California agriculture in a changing climate, a symposium entitled “Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions for California Agricultural Landscapes” was held at University of California, Davis, by the John Muir Institute for the Environment, May 12-13 2005 (John Muir Institute 2005). Talks were presented... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9c0618tq Fri, 22 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cavagnaro, Timothy Jackson, Louise Scow, Kate https://escholarship.org/uc/item/59s3j8bt California has often led the United States, and the world, in facilitating research on ecological impacts of rapid climate change. Now the fate of many Californian species rests on the shoulders of managers and those engaged in conservation planning and policy. What is sorely needed is general guidance on and specific examples of how scientists and those responsible for protecting biodiversity can work together toward specific adaptation strategies with a high probability of benefiting species and maintaining a diversity of functioning ecosystems. This report provides examples of how various species and ecosystems in California already are and how they might be influenced by climate disruption. The report is comprised of case studies written by senior graduate students and beginning postdoctoral scholars. These case studies include the following topics: using the fossil record to predict how California mammals will likely respond to climatic change, conserving California grasslands... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/59s3j8bt Fri, 22 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 PRBO Conservation Science Stanford University Michigan State University https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17j4h9jz There is substantial evidence that climate change is affecting ecosystems worldwide. California is no exception. With insights from historic climate change and subsequent species’ responses, scientists are developing refined tools to evaluate how species change may continue in the future and what impact this may have on biodiversity and conservation. Bioclimatic envelope modeling is one approach to modeling species distribution. However, it has many shortcomings by neglecting to account for individualistic species response or inter specific competition. Furthermore, bioclimatic envelope models do not account for species dispersal constraints or those imposed by disturbances such as land use change or fire. BioMove is a novel spatially explicit, dynamic species modeling approach developed to address these issues. It simulates a target species in a dynamic landscape, competing with a target species in competition with one or many PFTs. It combines various sub-models to integrate... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17j4h9jz Fri, 22 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 University of California, Santa Barbara https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qx629fh This paper synthesizes San Francisco Bay Area-focused findings from research conducted in 2010–2012 as part of the state’s Vulnerability and Adaptation study sponsored by the California Energy Commission’s Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. Historical observations of changes already evident are summarized, as well as projections of future changes in climate based on modeling studies using various plausible scenarios of how emissions of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere may change. Studies synthesized here show how these climate changes increase risks to society and natural ecosystems in a number of ways. Sectors for which impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options are presented include water, agriculture, energy supply and demand, transportation, ecosystems, public health, wildfire, and coastal resources. Results show that depending on the vulnerability of human and natural communities, and their abilities to respond to these growing risks through adaptive... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9qx629fh Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Ekstrom, Julia A. Moser, Susannne C. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9gw881b9 This paper explores water management adaptation in California to warm-dry and warm-only climate warming scenarios from the updated scenarios for the California Climate Change Scenarios Assessment 2008. CALVIN, an optimization model of California’s intertied water supply system, is employed to explore adaptation strategies for year 2050. EBHOM, an optimization model of high-elevation hydropower systems in California, is used to estimate adaptation in energy generation. A historical (1921–1993) hydrology is used as a reference. The warm-dry scenario is developed using permutation ratios for a 30-year downscaled simulation (from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s CM2.1 model using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario) centered at 2085. The warm-only scenario was developed based on the warm-dry hydrology, preserving the early snowmelt from the warm-dry scenario while maintaining the mean annual flows of the historical hydrology. This will aid separation of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9gw881b9 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Medellín-Azuara, Josué Connell, Christina R. Madani, Kaveh Lund, Jay R. Howitt, Richard E. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fq5v6k7 Cliff and bluff erosion, flooding of low‐lying areas, and damage to shoreline infrastructure and development will continue to affect California’s coastal communities in the decades ahead. Depending upon the rate of future sea‐level rise, changes in wave energy, and coastal storm intensity and frequency, these hazards will be likely become more severe, with increasing risks to coastal communities. This study assesses the vulnerability of the City of Santa Barbara to future sea‐level rise and related coastal hazards (by 2050 and 2100) based upon past events, shoreline topography, and exposure to sea‐level rise and wave attack. It also evaluates the likely impacts of coastal hazards to specific areas of the City, analyzes their risks and the City’s ability to respond, and recommends potential adaptation responses. By 2050, the risk of wave damage to shoreline development and infrastructure in Santa Barbara will be high. Options are limited and adaptive capacity will be moderate,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9fq5v6k7 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Griggs, Gary Russell, Nicole https://escholarship.org/uc/item/98x2n4rs One of the obvious modes of adaptation to higher temperatures due to climate change is the increased demand for cooling and decreased demand for heating in the built environment. California’s residential sector uses relatively little electricity for heating, and it is therefore expected that the demand for electricity will increase as households operate existing air conditioners more frequently, and in many regions, will install air conditioners where there currently are few. This paper provides reduced form estimates of changes in electricity consumption due to increased use of installed cooling equipment under a hotter climate. This study adds to the literature by incorporating the change in temperature responsiveness due to likely increases in air conditioner penetration under climate change using a two-stage method. It shows that taking into account these capital investments may lead to higher projections of electricity consumption. These increases in projected electricity... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/98x2n4rs Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Auffhammer, Maximilian Aroonruengsawat, Anin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w01t784 The work presented in this paper shows an estimate of the impacts of climate change on two high-elevation hydropower systems in California: the Upper America River Project, operated by Sacramento Municipal Utility District in Northern California, and the Big Creek system, operated by Southern California Edison in Southern California. The study builds on previous work modeling the Upper American River Project System. The model presented here includes methodological improvements to better simulate historical operations and more accurately project future operations of both hydropower systems. The operations of these two highelevation systems were simulated using historical and climate change scenarios. Hydrologic scenarios under climate change imply an average reduction in runoff for both systems (with a greater reduction for the Big Creek systems) and a change in the hydrograph towards earlier timing of runoff. The change in the hydrograph is greater for the Upper America River... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8w01t784 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Vicuña, Sebastian Dracup, John A. Dale, Larry https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h62s4xg Climate warming is expected to affect the beneficial uses of water in the Sierra Nevada, impacting nearly every resident of California. This paper describes the development and results from an integrated water resource management model encompassing water operations and hydropower generation for the west slope Sierra Nevada spanning the Feather River basin in the north to the Kern River basin in the south at the weekly time step. This model application includes management of reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower plants, water supply demand locations, conveyances, and instream flow requirement. Model validation indicates that most major hydropower turbine flows were simulated well, with wetter years modeled more effectively than drier years. The results of this work indicated that hydropower generation will be reduced by approximately 8 percent with 6°C (10.8°F) warming, consistent with other studies, with a conservative parameterization of no change in precipitation. Reservoir operations... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8h62s4xg Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Rheinheimer, David E. Ligare, Scott T. Viers, Joshua H. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8cc330xg Twenty‐first century climate change threatens biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. The diversity of responses and climate sensitivity among species and ecosystems presents a challenge for forecasting, conservation, and resource management. This paper explores several biotically informed analyses of current climates and future climate projections for California, and their implications for biological conservation. Section 1 examines shifts in the distribution of freezing events, mapping areas that are no longer projected to experience freeze events of various magnitudes by the end of the twenty‐first century; whereas, they have experienced freezes in the past. These areas may be sensitive to vegetation shifts, as plants that are not cold tolerant expand their ranges northward and to higher elevations. Section 2 examines expanding, novel, shrinking, and disappearing climates of California, based on the areal extent occupied by different combinations of climatic conditions.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8cc330xg Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Ackerly, David https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8b69q8cr Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8b69q8cr Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cayan, Dan Maurer, Ed Dettinger, Mike Tyree, Mary Hayhoe, Katharine Bonfils, Celine Duffy, Phil Santer, Ben https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8887j9br The change in flooding potential along the California coast over the twenty‐first century was estimated from both ocean wave and sea level rise projections produced from global climate model data. Changes in flooding potential were inferred from changes in wave runup (the vertical height reached by wave‐driven water levels), which depends on the instantaneous sea level (or still water level), beach slope, and wave height and wave period. The still water level is the superposition of regional (or relative) mean sea level, the tide, and non‐tide sea level fluctuations. Non‐tide sea level fluctuations include both the steric response associated with El Niño–related variability that can persist up to a year or more, and local storm–forced variability (storm surge). The potential for greatest coastal flooding occurs when extremes in waves and still water level occur nearly simultaneously. Wave activity provides the primary driving force for coastal flooding. Wave model significant... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8887j9br Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Bromirski, Peter D. Cayan, Daniel R. Graham, Nicholas Tyree, Mary Flick, Reinhard E. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7x47033q This white paper focuses on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the area burned in contained fires and the number of fires that escape initial attack. Prior research has indicated that there is a potential for significant increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack, particularly in areas in which the fuel matrix is dominated by grass and brush. These results were driven primarily by predicted increases in wind speeds. Those findings, however, were derived using less sophisticated models of initial attack than currently available. The results of this study, using more sophisticated models and climate projections, indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7x47033q Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Fried, Jeremy S. Gilless, J. Keith Riley, William J. Moody, Tadashi J. Simon de Blas, Clara Hayhoe, Katharine Moritz, Max Stephens, Scott Torn, Margaret https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sr6f275 This paper explores the sensitivity of water indexing methods to climate change scenarios to better understand how water management decisions and allocations will be affected by climate change. Many water management decisions, such as environmental flow requirements and water supply allocations, are based on numerical “water year type” designations. Water year type designations vary by region and index, but most are defined by some measure of runoff in the current water year compared to average historical runoff, with numerical thresholds categorizing year types. Climate change is anticipated to alter the timing and volume of runoff, and change the relative frequency of water year types as presently defined. California’s Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley Indices are used as a case study to examine climatic changes. These indices provide a framework for allocating and transferring water among users. Streamflow estimates for 1951–2099 from the climate-forced Variable Infiltration... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7sr6f275 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Null, Sarah E. Viers, Joshua H. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/72p7049g A methodology is presented that allows systematic evaluation of climate change impacts on freshwater fishes in California (121 native fish taxa and 43 aliens). The methodology uses expert opinions of the authors and literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes to score both status of each species (“baseline vulnerability”) and likely impact of climate change (“climate change vulnerability”). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were highly correlated with one another and were consistent among different scorers. Native species were found to have both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than alien species. Fifty percent of natives had critical or high baseline vulnerability versus none for aliens; 83 percent had critical or high climate change vulnerability versus 19 percent for aliens. Fishes with high baseline vulnerability were also likely to have highest vulnerability to climate change. These results show that predicted climate change... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/72p7049g Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moyle, Peter B. Kiernan, Joseph D. Crain, Patrick K. Quiñones, Rebecca M. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tj6020w Climate change will affect both sea level and the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff in California. These climate change impacts will affect the reliability of water supplies and operations of California’s water supply system. To meet future urban water demands in the San Francisco Bay Area, local water managers can adapt by changing water supply portfolios and operations. An engineering economic model, CALVIN, which optimizes water supply operations and allocations for the State of California, was used to explore the effects on water supply of a severely warm dry climate and substantial sea level rise, and to identify economically promising long-term adaptations for San Francisco Bay Area water systems. This reconnaissance level modeling suggests that even under fairly severe forms of climate change, Bay Area urban water demands can be largely met, but at a cost. Costs are from purchasing water from agricultural users (with agricultural opportunity costs), more expensive... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6tj6020w Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Sicke, William S. Lund, Jay R. Medellín-Azuara, Josué https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6r99f2kq Dominant plant species mediate many ecosystem services, including carbon storage, soil retention, and water cycling. One of the uncertainties with climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems is understanding where transitions in dominant vegetation, often termed state change, will occur. The complex nature of state change requires multiple lines of evidence. Here, we present four lines of inquiry into climate change effects on dominant vegetation, focusing on the likelihood and nature of climate change–driven state change. This study combined physiological measurements, geographic models, historical documented cases of state change, and statewide plot sampling networks together with interpolated climate grids. Together these approaches suggest that the vulnerability to state change will be driven by the proximity of climatic conditions to biological thresholds for dominant species. The sensitivity of the dominant species is a much greater driver of climate vulnerability compared... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6r99f2kq Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cornwell, William K. Stuart, Stephanie A. Ramirez, Aaron Dolanc, Christopher R. Thorne, James H. Ackerly, David D. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6c96p3q3 Climate model simulations were used to investigate possible changes in regional climate over California. To accomplish this, the model simulations were downscaled from the coarse global climate model resolution (usually 150 kilometers [km] or greater horizontal grid spacing) to about 12 km horizontal grid spacing over the California region, using statistical techniques. The global model output was used in a statistical modeling scheme to produce sea-level projections for selected California coastal sites. Six global climate models and two greenhouse emissions scenarios, the medium-high emissions Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and the lower emissions SRES B1 were considered. By the end of the twenty-first century, the envelope of warming in the models projections, as an annual average, ranges from about 2°C to 6°C (about 3.5 °F to 11°F). On average, mean annual temperature of the A2 scenarios is about 1.5°C (about 3°F) greater than that of the B1 scenario. There... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6c96p3q3 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cayan, Dan Tyree, Mary Iacobellis, Sam https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wv9f40k Literature concerning the potential effect of climate change (sea‐level rise inundation and 100‐year storm events) on the San Francisco Bay region’s transportation infrastructure is reviewed. Currently available geographical information system data is employed, and a review of how those datasets have been used in previous studies is reported. The second part of this paper presents methods. They include a higher‐resolution digital elevation model for the Bay Area; a new approach using a digital surface model is introduced to improve the surface elevations of features and better calculate the risk of over‐topping by sea level shifts and storm surges. A metric to assess change in the transportation infrastructure is introduced that calculates accessibility of first responders to the population at large. Sea level rise is incremented to the expected 1.4 meters in tandem with a 100‐year flood to analyze the extent to which transportation assets are at risk of inundation. The increased... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wv9f40k Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Biging, Greg S. Radke, John D. Lee, Jun Hak https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wd1797m We examine a macro-scaled perspective of fire and climate for California and highlight landscapes where sensitivity and exposure to climate change has the potential to induce alteration of future fire activity. This research presents just one method of proposing a future of fire and includes many caveats and assumptions. Using statistical models, we relate the probability of burning in 1080-m landscapes over a 30-year baseline period of 1971–2000 to climate variables for the same period. These climate variables aim to represent spatial variation in vegetation growth conditions and the seasonal dryness necessary for burning. A metric of distance to human development is used to examine human influence on fire activity via ignition and/or suppression. We quantify how the risk of relatively long-term tendency for burning might change with climate over the next 100 years based on projections from two Global Climate Models and two emissions scenarios. Model outcomes suggest varying... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5wd1797m Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Krawchuk, Meg Moritz, Max https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5g87h3sh This study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for the nine San Francisco Bay Area counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma). Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allows for differential effects of days with different meant temperatures on households’ electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household-level data set of billing data for Pacific Gas and Electric Company). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using three downscaled climate models suggest that for constant population the total demand for the households that were considered may increase by between 1 to 4 percent by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5g87h3sh Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Auffhammer, Maximilian Aroonruengsawat, Anin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/57q829sh California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/57q829sh Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cayan, Dan Bromirski, Peter Hayhoe, Katharine Tyree, Mary Dettinger, Mike Flick, Reinhard https://escholarship.org/uc/item/53c1n0c2 This paper describes the development and analysis of over 21,000 scenarios for future residential wildfire risk in California on a 1/8‐degree latitude/longitude grid at a monthly time step, using statistical models of wildfire activity and parameterizations of uncertainties related to residential property losses from wildfire. This research explored interactions between medium‐high and low emissions scenarios, three global climate models, six spatially explicit population growth scenarios derived from two growth models, and a range of values for multiple parameters that define vulnerability of properties at risk of loss due to wildfire. These are evaluated over two future time periods relative to a historic baseline. The study also explored the effects of the spatial resolution used for calculating household exposure to wildfire on changes in estimated future property losses. The goal was not to produce one single set of authoritative future risk scenarios, but rather to understand... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/53c1n0c2 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Bryant, Bejamin P. Westerling, Anthony L. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4jt2w2q2 There is growing recognition that some degree of climate change is now unavoidable and all regions, sectors, and people are vulnerable to climate change impacts to varying degrees. In response, a variety of stakeholders, from local governments to social justice groups and corporations, are beginning to think about adaptation strategies to help reduce their risk. Adaptation planning it still in its infancy and local governments are struggling with how to navigate the planning process. A handful of communities in the United States have embarked on planning efforts and have engaged the local community in some manner. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options in a major economic center: Oakland, California. The goal of this study is to inform the development of a comprehensive and equitable climate adaptation plan effort. This research project engages active members of the Oakland Climate Action Coalition, including community-based... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4jt2w2q2 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cooley, Heather Garzón, Catalina Heberger, Matthew Allen, Lucy Doty, Anna https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fm5s4xk Small mammals have shifted their elevation ranges in the Sierra Nevada. We questioned whether this shift can be linked to changes in habitat distribution, whether changes in population abundance match range dynamics, and how the shift affects predictions of future small mammal distribution. We merged data from mammal records of the Grinnell Resurvey Project, vegetation from the Wieslander Vegetation Type Maps and CALVEG and National Park Service, and downscaled PRISM climate data to meet these objectives.&nbsp;&nbsp; We found that species that expanded their elevational distribution range tracked suitable habitats, and their ecological niche broadened over time. Species whose elevation range has contracted did not track suitable habitats, and their ecological niche remained constant.&nbsp;&nbsp; Species that tracked their habitat dynamics showed an average decrease in abundance at the leading edge of their distribution range, whereas species that did not track their habitat... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4fm5s4xk Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Santos, Maria J. Moritz, Craig Thorne, James H. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/49v0n1n2 Using statistical models, wildfire risks are described as a function of climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation, and of hydrologic variables simulated using temperature and precipitation. Wildfire risks for the GFDL and PCM models and the A2 and B1 emissions scenarios are compared for 2005–2034, 2035–2064, and 2070–2099 against a 1961–1990 reference period to examine climate change scenarios ranging from neutral to lower precipitation and higher temperatures in California and neighboring states. This study considered changes in the wildfire risks for the larger region, for California, and for northern and southern California. Outcomes for the GFDL model runs, which exhibit higher temperatures than the PCM model runs, diverged sharply for different kinds of fire regimes, with increased temperatures promoting greater large fire frequency in wetter, forested areas, via the effects of warmer temperatures on fuel flammability. At the same time, reduced moisture availability... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/49v0n1n2 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Westerling, Anthony Bryant, Benjamin https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47c9n051 Our Changing Climate 2012 highlights important new insights and data, using probabilistic and detailed climate projections and refined topographic, demographic and land use information. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/47c9n051 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moser, Susannne C. Ekstrom, Julia Franco, Guido https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4579b82q This research is part of a spectrum of studies of the California water system to assess impacts of climate change on urban and agricultural water agencies. This report describes preliminary work on methods for measuring current water supply reliability and methods for projecting changes in supply reliability caused by climate change, including: (1) a review of recent climate change literature in California; (2) a summary of criteria for evaluating water resource models; (3) an assessment of CALSIM-II water supply reliability forecasts and (4) an assessment of the accuracy of April-June flow forecasts performed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). The literature review showed that climate change will affect Californian hydrology in several ways, including an earlier start of spring snowmelt, an increase in winter runoff as a fraction of total runoff, and an increase in winter flood frequency. The study’s evaluation of three models used to estimate the water supply... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4579b82q Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Dracup, John A. Vicuña, Sebastian Leonardson, Rebecca Dale, Larry Hanneman, Michael https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40m543tk Analysts assessing energy policies and energy modelers forecasting future trends need to have access to reliable and concise energy statistics. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory evaluated several sources of California energy data, primarily from the California Energy Commission and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, to develop the California Energy Balance Database (CALEB). This database manages highly disaggregated data on energy supply, transformation, and end-use consumption for each type of energy commodity from 1990 to the most recent year available (generally 2001) in the form of an energy balance, following the methodology used by the International Energy Agency. This report presents the data used for CALEB and provides information on how the various data sources were reconciled. CALEB offers the possibility of displaying all energy flows in numerous ways (e.g., physical units, Btus, petajoules, different levels of aggregation), facilitating comparisons among... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/40m543tk Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Murtishaw, Scott Price, Lynn de la Rue du Can, Stephanie Worrell, Ernst Sathaye, Jayant https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3w14m0mr To provide an updated synoptic assessment of vertical land motion rates in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, the research team performed synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) on 35 radar scenes from the Envisat platform acquired from 2006–2010. The study used contemporaneously collected continuous global positioning system data to tie the InSAR results to an absolute reference frame. In accord with the researchers’ previous study from 1995–2000 (VLM00), the new results (VLM10) demonstrate general subsidence of the Delta with respect to its margins. The average rates of ~1-2 millimeters per year (mm/yr) are slightly lower than the ~3-5mm/yr rates from 1995–2000. An unexpected finding is the uplift associated with Roberts Island, in the Delta’s southeastern sector. The time- and space-varying differences between the two solutions (VLM00 and VLM10) highlights the need to develop a physical model for the Delta. The study used the updated ground-motion rate map and the most... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3w14m0mr Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Brooks, Benjamin A. Manjunath, Deepak https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t2160dp This place‐based case study in an agricultural county in California’s Central Valley focused on the period of 2010–2050, and dealt with biophysical and socioeconomic issues related to both mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to adaptation to an uncertain climate. In the past 100 years, changes in crop acreage has been more related to crop price and availability of irrigation water than to growing degree days during summer, and in fact, summer temperatures have increased less than winter temperatures. Econometric analysis indicated that warmer winters, as projected by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory‐Bias Corrected Constructed Analog during 2035–2050, could result in less wheat acreage, more alfalfa and tomato acreage, and slight effects on tree and vine crops. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model showed that these econometric projections did not reduce irrigation demand under either the B1 or A2 scenarios, but a diverse, water‐efficient cropping pattern... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3t2160dp Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Jackson, Louise Haden, Van R. Hollander, Allan D. Lee, Hyunok Lubell, Mark Mehta, Vishal K. O'Green, Toby Niles, Meredith Perlman, Josh Purkey, David Salas, William Sumner, Dan Tomuta, Mihaela Dempsey, Michael Wheeler, Stephen M. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3sw2257n Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Use in California describes part of a broad spectrum of studies of the California water system that are being conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on urban and agricultural water agencies.&nbsp; &nbsp; Study topics include methods for measuring the economic value of water supply reliability to water users in California, and methods for projecting changes in supply reliability caused by climate change.&nbsp;&nbsp; This report describes preliminary work on the first topic. To measure water supply reliability, researchers collected data on several variables, including water deliveries for project districts spanning 20 years, water rights information, water source information and electricity use data related to groundwater pumping.&nbsp;&nbsp;To measure the economic value of reliability, they collected land value, water price, water transfers for many years, and cropping by districts. The project found that the... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3sw2257n Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 University of California, Berkeley Richard & Rhonda Goldman School of Public Policy Dale, Larry Fisher, Anthony Hanneman, Michael Schlenker, Wolfram Fujita, Kimberly Millstein, Dev https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hn2b5q1 In addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, policies to achieve a sustainable coexistence with wildfire should be enacted now. This paper recommends a variety of actions that should be taken regardless of the many uncertainties in predicting future fire regimes. Adoption of a risk-based framework for fire management, reintroduction of fire to fire-prone ecosystems and careful use of fire surrogates, creation of new and flexible policies, and a serious reevaluation of urban planning and building in fire-prone locations are needed to reach a sustainable coexistence with fire in the future. Our future cities and communities must be less susceptible to wildfire damage, and the ecosystems upon which we depend must be made more resilient to further disruptions in fire regimes. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3hn2b5q1 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moritz, Max Stephens, Scott L. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3g21p76g This white paper provides an evaluation of physical elements of climate change and sea level rise that are contained in the California Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. The analyses use six global climate models, each run under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios B1 and A2 scenarios. From the global climate models and associated downscaled output, these scenarios contain a range of warming, continued interannual and decadal variation of precipitation with incremental changes by the middle and end of twenty‐first century, substantial loss of mountain snow pack, and a range of sea level rise along the California coast. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3g21p76g Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Cayan, Dan Tyree, Mary Pierce, David Das, Tapash https://escholarship.org/uc/item/39r3d0dd California’s coastlines are vulnerable to the consequences of climate change and sea‐level rise. Coastal managers at local, regional, state, and federal levels will need to plan and implement adaptation measures to cope with these consequences.&nbsp;&nbsp;This study explored the information needs of California’s coastal managers, who confront the growing risks from climate change. It examined the challenges managers face presently, what information they use to perform their responsibilities, and what additional information and other knowledge resources they may need to begin planning for climate change. This study was conducted in the broader context of how science can best support policy makers and resource managers. Based on extensive interview and survey research in the state, researchers found that managers prefer certain types of information and information sources and would benefit from various learning opportunities (in addition to that information) to better use the available... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/39r3d0dd Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moser, Susannne C. Tribbia, John https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2z7593n5 Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This research examined approaches to reducing drought vulnerability, focusing on five water agencies on California’s north and central coast that rely on local and regional sources of water. Curtailing water use is the principal response to drought. In contrast, this project highlights an important but underutilized proactive adaptation to improve water supply security during drought: the development of locally based groundwater drought reserves. While this approach represents an obvious solution in principle, it is uncommon to find it in practice, and this research provides insight into (1) motivating factors, (2) legal barriers and opportunities, (3) tools, and (4) policy options to support increased drought resilience and the development of drought reserves. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2z7593n5 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Langridge, Ruth Fisher, Andrew Racz, Andrew Daniels, Bruce Rudestam, Kirsten Hihara, Blake https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2w9962wn This study reviewed first available frameworks for climate change adaptation in the public health arena. The authors propose a conceptual framework with a three‐step procedure to assess climate change vulnerabilities.&nbsp;&nbsp; First, the study team identified and modeled heat stress, environmental, social, and health factors that are closely related to climate change and vulnerability. Second, the team quantified the cumulative impacts of four high‐priority factors at regional level using the cumulative environmental hazard inequality index. Third, the team applied the environmental justice screening tool to map the four high‐priority factors to identify areas with increased vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In addition to the heat stress estimated using air monitoring data, the team applied satellite data to create models of the land surface temperature at 30‐meter resolution and provided a measure of small‐scale variations in the urban heat island.... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2w9962wn Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Jerrett, Michael Su, Jason G. Reid, Colleen E. Jesdale, Bill Ortega Hinojosa, Alberto M. Shonkoff, Seth B. Seto, Edmund Morello-Frosch, Rachel https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2g19c53f While only about 30 percent of California’s usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high‐elevation hydropower units generate, on average, 74 percent of California’s in‐ state hydroelectricity. In general, high‐elevation plants have small man‐made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built‐in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high‐demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California’s high‐elevation hydropower system by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) but they have ignored the warming effects on hydropower demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high‐elevation hydropower supply and demand in California. Artificial Neural... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2g19c53f Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Guegan, Marion Madani, Kaveh Uvo, Cintia B. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ck5n492 This project focused on the legal and institutional framework associated with California’s water rights allocation system, and identifies changes to that framework that would facilitate adaptation to climate change. Since such changes may be difficult to accomplish, the project focused largely, but not exclusively, on changes that may be politically feasible now or in the future. There is already conflict in California over water allocation, and climate change will exacerbate that conflict by increasing demand and decreasing supply. Adaptation will be needed both to address already unavoidable impacts from historical emissions, and to address impacts from future emissions. To identify changes that would facilitate adaptation this study looked at recent legislation, policy proposals, and white papers addressing water reform; and off‐the‐record interviews were conducted with individuals familiar with California water law. Having an accurate record of who is diverting water in California,... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/2ck5n492 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Hanneman, Michael Lee, Deborah Farber, Daniel https://escholarship.org/uc/item/294157mq Species ranges are dynamic, and often respond to changes in global climate. Recorded increases of global average temperatures through the twentieth century have already resulted in observed shifts of species ranges within California. Projections of future species distributions under climate change are possible through models that correlate known species occurrences with observed historical climate, then project this correlation onto scenarios of climate change. Previous work in California has focused on modeling changes in the distribution of vegetation and species. This study expands on this work through (1) modeling species at finer spatial scales than previously possible, (2) applying those models in advanced conservation planning tools, and (3) illustrating the intersection of human adaptation and conservation under climate change. Section 1 presents a suite of species distribution models created with climate and water balance data that has been statistically downscaled to... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/294157mq Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Hannah, L. Shaw, M. R. Roehrdanz, P. Ikegami, M. Soong, O. Thorne, J. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/28r0c56d In response to Executive Order S-3-05, this paper examines California’s opportunities and constraints for managing the impacts of climate change. It reviews the extant literature on adaptation and provides examples from selected sectors in California to illuminate the constraints and, in some cases, limits to the ability to adapt to climate change. Based on these insights, recommendations are made for how government, research, and civil society can help California most effectively prepare for climate change impacts. The key findings are: Key Finding #1: California’s response to climate change is not a simple choice between mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary complementary strategies for managing climate change. The state must determine the portfolio of solutions that will best minimize potential risks and maximize potential benefits. Key Finding #2: Today’s climate variability and weather... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/28r0c56d Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Luers, Amy Lynd Moser, Susannne C. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/27k3b986 This paper outlines the production of 270 meter grid‐scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map‐based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070– 2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly&nbsp;&nbsp;historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine‐scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. The paper presents three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30‐year period; a calibration and validation effort... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/27k3b986 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Thorne, James H. Zboynton, Ryan Flint, Lorraine Flint, Alan Lee, Thuy N'goc https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vc2q811 The research goals of this project were threefold: (1) to systematically identify the adaptation barriers encountered by local government entities in San Francisco Bay; (2) to test empirically the robustness and usefulness of a diagnostic framework (previously developed by the authors) so as to modify or refine its components; and (3) to draw larger lessons about the adaptation process and the importance of adaptation barriers—even in highly developed nations—for the scientific community in terms of future research priorities and for policy‐makers. To fulfill these goals, an in‐depth study of five California case studies in the San Francisco Bay region (Hayward, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Marin Counties, and the regional adaptation process) was undertaken. Relevant data were collected through key informant interviews, public documents, observation of and/or participation in public meetings, and a statewide survey.&nbsp;&nbsp; The study found growing, but still very limited... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1vc2q811 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moser, Susannne C. Ekstrom, Julia A. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rp9w0kj Climate change has the potential to alter the San Francisco Bay Area’s agricultural production, a $2 billion industry. Two of the top sectors, wine and ranching, are examined in this paper. Downscaled models suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination and earlier senescence, resulting in shorter growing seasons. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. Similarly, wine grape yields are projected to increase throughout much of the Bay Area, but wine grape quality may decline substantially under future climate conditions, as the crop ripens earlier during hotter months. The implications for these shifts in wine grape and forage production are that the aspects of Bay Area agriculture most... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1rp9w0kj Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qm749nx The San Francisco Bay Area contains a rich array of plant and animal biodiversity and an extensive open space network, embedded within a major metropolitan area. Terrestrial habitats in the San Francisco Bay Area support a wide range of ecosystem services, including carbon storage, forage production, enhanced water supply and quality, crop pollination, and outdoor recreation. The distribution of habitats and plant and animal species is strongly influenced by spatial variation in climate, and is thus expected to change in response to changes in regional and global climate. Current research suggests that most vegetation types will shift toward the coast, especially under scenarios with warmer and drier conditions; range contractions and reduced diversity are projected for California endemic plants in the Bay Area. Bird communities are projected to undergo significant reorganization, leading to altered interactions and community structure. Improved modeling at fine spatial scales... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qm749nx Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Ackerly, David D. Ryals, Rebecca A. Cornwell, Will K. Loarie, Scott R. Veloz, Sam Higgason, Kelley D. Silver, Whendee L. Dawson, Todd E. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1n1380vn This paper contributes an analysis of natural resource management tools for planning for climate change, including a case study on scenario planning, to the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for California. It presents the findings of a literature review on decision‐ making tools for climate change planning and consultations with adaptation planners, resource managers, and scientists. In addition, it discusses lessons learned from a one‐day climate change scenario planning workshop with resource managers and scientists working in Marin County that focused on analyzing the scenario approach in the context of other approaches. It also describes cases of public agency and private conservation non‐profit organizations working on resource management problems under climate change. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1n1380vn Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moore, Sara Zavaleta, Erika Shaw, Rebecca https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fs9s6b4 California’s native inland fish fauna is in steep decline, a pattern which is reflected in the status of fishes native to streams flowing into the San Francisco Estuary and in the estuary itself. Climate change will further reduce the distribution and abundance of these mostly endemic fishes and expand the distribution and abundance of alien fish species. The decline and likely extinction of many native fishes reflects dramatic shifts in the state’s aquatic ecosystems; shifts which are being accelerated by climate change. Fishes requiring cold water, such as salmon and trout, will especially suffer from climate change impacts of warmer water and reduced summer flows. Additionally, desirable species living in the San Francisco Estuary and the lower reaches of its streams will have to contend with the effects of rising sea level along with changes in flows and temperature. This paper: (1) briefly describes the environment of California and its fish fauna, (2) summarizes the projected... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1fs9s6b4 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Moyle, Peter B. Quiñones, Rebecca M. Kiernan, Joseph D. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1bs0h6pk To build public support for adapting to and mitigating climate change, it will be necessary to develop greater awareness of a broad set of biophysical and socioeconomic factors that influence agricultural vulnerability and resilience. First, the study developed a spatially explicit agricultural vulnerability index for California derived from 22 climate, crop, land use, and socioeconomic variables. Results of the agricultural vulnerability index suggest that the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta, the Salinas Valley, the corridor between Merced and Fresno, and the Imperial Valley merit special consideration due to their high agricultural vulnerability. The underlying factors contributing to vulnerability and resilience differ among these regions, indicating that future studies and responses could benefit from adopting a contextualized “place based” approach. As an example of this approach, the research team summarized the findings from a recent study on climate change adaptation in Yolo... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1bs0h6pk Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Jackson, Louise Haden, Van R. Wheeler, Stephen M. Hollander, Allan D. Perlman, Josh O'Green, Toby Mehta, Vishal K. Clark, Victoria Williams, John https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17582969 This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. The following end-of-century impacts were projected:  Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses.  By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load.  As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (percapita, exclusive of population growth).... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/17582969 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Sathaye, Jayant Dale, Larry Larsen, Peter Fitts, Gary Koy, Kevin Lewis, Sarah Lucena, Andre https://escholarship.org/uc/item/13t8k9ts This paper documents the development of land use models that represent different urban growth policy scenarios for California, a contribution to the Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Climate Vulnerability and Assessment Project of 2010–2011. The research team produced six UPlan model runs that portray the following policies as footprint scenarios to 2050: Business as Usual, Smart Growth, Fire Adaptation, Infill, Conservation of Projected Connectivity for Plant Movement under Climate Change, and Conservation of Vulnerable Agricultural Lands. This paper compares the outputs from these six scenarios on outputs from three other PIER vulnerability studies: biodiversity, fire return interval, and agricultural sensitivity. While not directly targeting any conservation or agricultural objective, the Infill scenario preserved more open space for other use than any of the other scenarios. The results suggest that combining Infill objectives with other open space goals will produce... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/13t8k9ts Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Thorne, James H. Bjorkman, Jacquelyn Roth, Nathaniel https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jp4w9hq Over the past century, sea level has risen nearly eight inches along the California coast, and general circulation model scenarios suggest very substantial increases in sea level as a significant impact of climate change over the coming century. This study includes a detailed analysis of the current population, infrastructure, and property along the San Francisco Bay that are at risk from projected sea level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast. The sea level rise scenario was developed by the State of California from medium to high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change but does not reflect the worst‐case sea level rise that could occur. If development continues in the areas at risk, all of these estimates will rise. No matter what policies are implemented in the future, sea level rise will inevitably change the character of the San Francisco Bay. We estimate that a 1.0 meter (m) sea level rise will put 220,000 people... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0jp4w9hq Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Pacific Institute Heberger, Matthew Cooley, Heather Moore, Eli Herrera, Pablo https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0696v9nb The State of California faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, coastal flooding, and erosion. Changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors that make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by intervening conditions that determine the human impact of the event and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, the authors analyzed the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs to create a variety of statistics and visualizations that show their distribution across the state. To understand how the population exposed to these... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0696v9nb Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Pacific Institute Cooley, Heather Moore, Eli Heberger, Matthew Allen, Lucy https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0603p3c4 The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSSCENTURY (MC1) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in the productivity of evergreen hardwoods with increased temperature led to the displacement of Evergreen Conifer Forest by Mixed Evergreen Forest. The simulated responses to changes in precipitation were complex, involving not only the effect on vegetation productivity, but also changes in tree-grass competition mediated by fire. Grassland expanded, largely at the expense of Woodland and Shrubland, even under the relatively cool and moist PCM-A2 climate scenario where increased woody plant production was offset by increased wildfire. Increases in net primary productivity (NPP) under the PCM-A2 climate scenario contributed... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0603p3c4 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Lenihan, James M. Bachelet, Dominique Drapek, Raymond Neilson, Ronald P. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/01h74183 Recent publications suggest that anthropogenic aerosols suppress orographic precipitation in California and elsewhere. A field campaign (SUPRECIP: Suppression of Precipitation) was conducted to investigate this hypothesized aerosol effect. The campaign consisted of aircraft measurements of the polluting aerosols, the composition of the clouds ingesting them, and the way the precipitation‐forming processes are affected. SUPRECIP was conducted during February and March of 2005 and February and March of 2006. The flights documented aerosols and orographic clouds flowing into the central Sierra Nevada from upwind densely populated industrialized/urbanized areas and contrasted them with the aerosols and clouds downwind of the sparsely populated areas in the northern Sierra Nevada. SUPRECIP found that the aerosols transported from the coastal regions are augmented by local sources in the Central Valley, resulting in high concentrations of aerosols in the eastern parts of the Central... https://escholarship.org/uc/item/01h74183 Thu, 21 Oct 2021 00:00:00 +0000 Woodley, William L. Rosenfeld, Daniel Freud, Eyal Axisa, Duncan Hudson, James G.